By Devin Fuller TGK Correspondent With 200 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year...
By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent
With 200 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year’s early contenders. Historically, the Academy favors films released late in the year (only eight out of 35 Best Picture nominees from the last five years were released before September, a number boosted heavily by the increase to 10 nominees in the last two years). But it doesn’t mean these films’ chances are nil: 2005’s "Crash" won Best Picture after all, and that film was released in May. Here are some of this year’s potential Best Picture hopefuls:
'Midnight in Paris'
With his latest film, Woody Allen has achieved his greatest critical and commercial success in years. "Midnight in Paris" is on track to become Allen’s highest grossing film ever (surpassing 1986’s "Hannah and Her Sisters"), so the Academy may want to recognize the cinema legend once again. The film is a loving tribute to classical artists and writers, a topic that should hit the spot for many older Academy voters, and it’s filled with enjoyable performances. If it were released later in the year, it’d be a sure thing; but its early release may hurt its chances. Still, Allen hasn’t made a film this accessible in years.
Best Picture odds: 2:3
'The Tree of Life'
Terence Malick’s metaphysical exploration of a young Texas family and Earth’s creation is one of his most divisive films. For every viewer who finds the imagery striking and moving, there’s another who finds it slow and pretentious. (Read: The TGK review.) Malick had a date with Oscar once before with "The Thin Red Line" in 1998, but he hasn’t been back since. If 10 nominees were guaranteed, his Best Picture chances would be great. Since they aren’t, he may have to settle for competing for technical awards like Cinematography and Visual Effects.
Best Picture odds: 3:2
'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2'
The Academy has never been a huge proponent of the sci-fi/fantasy genre, but the increase in nominees has allowed a few unexpected films like "District 9" to make it into the race. The last (and only) fantasy film to win was 2003’s "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." None of the previous Harry Potter films have been considered Oscar bait, but "Deathly Hallows – Part 2" is the best-reviewed film of the series, and voters may decide to reward the entire series as a whole with a nomination. (Read: The TGK review.)
Best Picture odds: 10:1
'Beginners'
Mike Mills’ romantic comedy about a young man (Ewan McGregor) and his relationships with his father (Christopher Plummer) and a young actress ("Inglourious Basterds"’ Melanie Laurent) is topical (the father comes out as gay at age 75) and touching (he’s also diagnosed with cancer). But the film needs to be a much bigger hit for it to have much of an impact. If Oscar voters remember the film later this year, they might reward Plummer with his second Best Supporting Actor nomination.
Best Picture odds: 12:1
'Jane Eyre'
Cary Fukunaga’s adaptation of the Jane Austen novel was well-received and praised for its performances by Mia Wasikowska and Michael Fassbender. The Academy also loves a well-executed period piece. But the film is not exactly the first adaptation of the well-known novel about a mousy governess (see 2006’s BBC mini-series, 1997 TV film, 1996 feature film, etc.). In a weak year, the film might have had a chance. Instead, "Jane Eyre" is more likely to fair well in design categories than be a major contender in the biggest race of all.
Best Picture odds: 13:1
'Cars 2'
After receiving back-to-back Best Picture nominations for both "Up" and "Toy Story 3," it seemed like one spot was bound to be reserved for a Pixar film every year. But it turns out that "Cars 2" is a verifiable clunker, Pixar’s first ever “Rotten” film on Rotten Tomatoes (adding insult to injury, more critics liked "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"). Pixar has enough goodwill that "Cars 2" might still be able to snag a Best Animated Feature nod, but Gore Verbinski’s quirky "Rango" and Carlos Saldanha’s colorful "Rio" have a better shot at a win than "Cars 2." However, don’t look for either of those films to receive a Best Picture nomination.
Best Picture odds: 15:1
'Meek’s Cutoff'
Kelly Reichardt’s slow and contemplative film about settlers traversing the American west has its share of supporters, but some critics find it to be a little too tedious. The film was even the subject of a New York Times article about “slow and boring” films. The film was not exactly a blockbuster and only played in very limited release, so unless the studio can fund a pricey Oscar campaign, it’s unlikely that voters will remember the film come Oscar season.
Best Picture odds: 15:1
'Super 8'
Ostensibly this summer’s only original blockbuster (not based on superheroes or pirates or wizards), "Super 8" is J.J. Abrams’ homage to Steven Spielberg-style thrillers. While the latter director’s "Jaws" and "E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial" both received Best Picture nominations, it’s unlikely that "Super 8" will have the same cultural impact those films did. Some critics feel that Abrams idolizes Spielberg to a fault, while others have problems with the film’s denouement. (Read: The TGK review.) Those hoping for "Super 8" to occupy a big-budget blockbuster spot (like last year’s "Inception") will probably be disappointed. Expect possible Visual Effects or Sound Design/Mixing nominations for the film’s spectacular train crash.
Best Picture odds: 20:1
'Bridesmaids'
It’s probably a stretch to say that "Bridesmaids" is Oscar material, but it is one of the biggest hits of the year and a rare critically acclaimed achievement in female comedy. But perhaps female voters will rally around the film and catapult it to a Best Picture nomination to prove that female-oriented comedies can be just as successful as male ones. Perhaps, but probably not.
Best Picture odds: 30:1
'Transformers: Dark of the Moon'
"Dark of the Moon" is Michael Bay’s magnum opus. Filled with gratuitous butt shots, fantastic explosions, mind-blowing CGI and a Shakespearean performance from Optimus Prime… oh who are we kidding? There’s no chance this thing’s getting nominated for Best Picture.
Best Picture odds: 1,000:1
What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.
TGK Correspondent
With 200 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year’s early contenders. Historically, the Academy favors films released late in the year (only eight out of 35 Best Picture nominees from the last five years were released before September, a number boosted heavily by the increase to 10 nominees in the last two years). But it doesn’t mean these films’ chances are nil: 2005’s "Crash" won Best Picture after all, and that film was released in May. Here are some of this year’s potential Best Picture hopefuls:
With his latest film, Woody Allen has achieved his greatest critical and commercial success in years. "Midnight in Paris" is on track to become Allen’s highest grossing film ever (surpassing 1986’s "Hannah and Her Sisters"), so the Academy may want to recognize the cinema legend once again. The film is a loving tribute to classical artists and writers, a topic that should hit the spot for many older Academy voters, and it’s filled with enjoyable performances. If it were released later in the year, it’d be a sure thing; but its early release may hurt its chances. Still, Allen hasn’t made a film this accessible in years.
Best Picture odds: 2:3
'The Tree of Life'
Terence Malick’s metaphysical exploration of a young Texas family and Earth’s creation is one of his most divisive films. For every viewer who finds the imagery striking and moving, there’s another who finds it slow and pretentious. (Read: The TGK review.) Malick had a date with Oscar once before with "The Thin Red Line" in 1998, but he hasn’t been back since. If 10 nominees were guaranteed, his Best Picture chances would be great. Since they aren’t, he may have to settle for competing for technical awards like Cinematography and Visual Effects.
Best Picture odds: 3:2
'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2'
The Academy has never been a huge proponent of the sci-fi/fantasy genre, but the increase in nominees has allowed a few unexpected films like "District 9" to make it into the race. The last (and only) fantasy film to win was 2003’s "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." None of the previous Harry Potter films have been considered Oscar bait, but "Deathly Hallows – Part 2" is the best-reviewed film of the series, and voters may decide to reward the entire series as a whole with a nomination. (Read: The TGK review.)
Best Picture odds: 10:1
Mike Mills’ romantic comedy about a young man (Ewan McGregor) and his relationships with his father (Christopher Plummer) and a young actress ("Inglourious Basterds"’ Melanie Laurent) is topical (the father comes out as gay at age 75) and touching (he’s also diagnosed with cancer). But the film needs to be a much bigger hit for it to have much of an impact. If Oscar voters remember the film later this year, they might reward Plummer with his second Best Supporting Actor nomination.
Best Picture odds: 12:1
'Jane Eyre'
Cary Fukunaga’s adaptation of the Jane Austen novel was well-received and praised for its performances by Mia Wasikowska and Michael Fassbender. The Academy also loves a well-executed period piece. But the film is not exactly the first adaptation of the well-known novel about a mousy governess (see 2006’s BBC mini-series, 1997 TV film, 1996 feature film, etc.). In a weak year, the film might have had a chance. Instead, "Jane Eyre" is more likely to fair well in design categories than be a major contender in the biggest race of all.
Best Picture odds: 13:1
'Cars 2'
After receiving back-to-back Best Picture nominations for both "Up" and "Toy Story 3," it seemed like one spot was bound to be reserved for a Pixar film every year. But it turns out that "Cars 2" is a verifiable clunker, Pixar’s first ever “Rotten” film on Rotten Tomatoes (adding insult to injury, more critics liked "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"). Pixar has enough goodwill that "Cars 2" might still be able to snag a Best Animated Feature nod, but Gore Verbinski’s quirky "Rango" and Carlos Saldanha’s colorful "Rio" have a better shot at a win than "Cars 2." However, don’t look for either of those films to receive a Best Picture nomination.
Best Picture odds: 15:1
Kelly Reichardt’s slow and contemplative film about settlers traversing the American west has its share of supporters, but some critics find it to be a little too tedious. The film was even the subject of a New York Times article about “slow and boring” films. The film was not exactly a blockbuster and only played in very limited release, so unless the studio can fund a pricey Oscar campaign, it’s unlikely that voters will remember the film come Oscar season.
Best Picture odds: 15:1
'Super 8'
Ostensibly this summer’s only original blockbuster (not based on superheroes or pirates or wizards), "Super 8" is J.J. Abrams’ homage to Steven Spielberg-style thrillers. While the latter director’s "Jaws" and "E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial" both received Best Picture nominations, it’s unlikely that "Super 8" will have the same cultural impact those films did. Some critics feel that Abrams idolizes Spielberg to a fault, while others have problems with the film’s denouement. (Read: The TGK review.) Those hoping for "Super 8" to occupy a big-budget blockbuster spot (like last year’s "Inception") will probably be disappointed. Expect possible Visual Effects or Sound Design/Mixing nominations for the film’s spectacular train crash.
Best Picture odds: 20:1
'Bridesmaids'
It’s probably a stretch to say that "Bridesmaids" is Oscar material, but it is one of the biggest hits of the year and a rare critically acclaimed achievement in female comedy. But perhaps female voters will rally around the film and catapult it to a Best Picture nomination to prove that female-oriented comedies can be just as successful as male ones. Perhaps, but probably not.
Best Picture odds: 30:1
'Transformers: Dark of the Moon'
"Dark of the Moon" is Michael Bay’s magnum opus. Filled with gratuitous butt shots, fantastic explosions, mind-blowing CGI and a Shakespearean performance from Optimus Prime… oh who are we kidding? There’s no chance this thing’s getting nominated for Best Picture.Best Picture odds: 1,000:1
What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.
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