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Oscar Odds: 200 days to go… what movies are in?

By Devin Fuller TGK Correspondent With 200 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year...

By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent

With 200 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year’s early contenders. Historically, the Academy favors films released late in the year (only eight out of 35 Best Picture nominees from the last five years were released before September, a number boosted heavily by the increase to 10 nominees in the last two years). But it doesn’t mean these films’ chances are nil: 2005’s "Crash" won Best Picture after all, and that film was released in May. Here are some of this year’s potential Best Picture hopefuls:

'Midnight in Paris'
With his latest film, Woody Allen has achieved his greatest critical and commercial success in years. "Midnight in Paris" is on track to become Allen’s highest grossing film ever (surpassing 1986’s "Hannah and Her Sisters"), so the Academy may want to recognize the cinema legend once again. The film is a loving tribute to classical artists and writers, a topic that should hit the spot for many older Academy voters, and it’s filled with enjoyable performances. If it were released later in the year, it’d be a sure thing; but its early release may hurt its chances. Still, Allen hasn’t made a film this accessible in years.
Best Picture odds: 2:3

'The Tree of Life'
Terence Malick’s metaphysical exploration of a young Texas family and Earth’s creation is one of his most divisive films. For every viewer who finds the imagery striking and moving, there’s another who finds it slow and pretentious. (Read: The TGK review.) Malick had a date with Oscar once before with "The Thin Red Line" in 1998, but he hasn’t been back since. If 10 nominees were guaranteed, his Best Picture chances would be great. Since they aren’t, he may have to settle for competing for technical awards like Cinematography and Visual Effects.
Best Picture odds: 3:2

'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2'
The Academy has never been a huge proponent of the sci-fi/fantasy genre, but the increase in nominees has allowed a few unexpected films like "District 9" to make it into the race. The last (and only) fantasy film to win was 2003’s "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." None of the previous Harry Potter films have been considered Oscar bait, but "Deathly Hallows – Part 2" is the best-reviewed film of the series, and voters may decide to reward the entire series as a whole with a nomination. (Read: The TGK review.)
Best Picture odds: 10:1


'Beginners'
Mike Mills’ romantic comedy about a young man (Ewan McGregor) and his relationships with his father (Christopher Plummer) and a young actress ("Inglourious Basterds"’ Melanie Laurent) is topical (the father comes out as gay at age 75) and touching (he’s also diagnosed with cancer). But the film needs to be a much bigger hit for it to have much of an impact. If Oscar voters remember the film later this year, they might reward Plummer with his second Best Supporting Actor nomination.
Best Picture odds: 12:1

'Jane Eyre'
Cary Fukunaga’s adaptation of the Jane Austen novel was well-received and praised for its performances by Mia Wasikowska and Michael Fassbender. The Academy also loves a well-executed period piece. But the film is not exactly the first adaptation of the well-known novel about a mousy governess (see 2006’s BBC mini-series, 1997 TV film, 1996 feature film, etc.). In a weak year, the film might have had a chance. Instead, "Jane Eyre" is more likely to fair well in design categories than be a major contender in the biggest race of all.
Best Picture odds: 13:1

'Cars 2'
After receiving back-to-back Best Picture nominations for both "Up" and "Toy Story 3," it seemed like one spot was bound to be reserved for a Pixar film every year. But it turns out that "Cars 2" is a verifiable clunker, Pixar’s first ever “Rotten” film on Rotten Tomatoes (adding insult to injury, more critics liked "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"). Pixar has enough goodwill that "Cars 2" might still be able to snag a Best Animated Feature nod, but Gore Verbinski’s quirky "Rango" and Carlos Saldanha’s colorful "Rio" have a better shot at a win than "Cars 2." However, don’t look for either of those films to receive a Best Picture nomination.
Best Picture odds: 15:1


'Meek’s Cutoff'
Kelly Reichardt’s slow and contemplative film about settlers traversing the American west has its share of supporters, but some critics find it to be a little too tedious. The film was even the subject of a New York Times article about “slow and boring” films. The film was not exactly a blockbuster and only played in very limited release, so unless the studio can fund a pricey Oscar campaign, it’s unlikely that voters will remember the film come Oscar season.
Best Picture odds: 15:1

'Super 8'
Ostensibly this summer’s only original blockbuster (not based on superheroes or pirates or wizards), "Super 8" is J.J. Abrams’ homage to Steven Spielberg-style thrillers. While the latter director’s "Jaws" and "E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial" both received Best Picture nominations, it’s unlikely that "Super 8" will have the same cultural impact those films did. Some critics feel that Abrams idolizes Spielberg to a fault, while others have problems with the film’s denouement. (Read: The TGK review.) Those hoping for "Super 8" to occupy a big-budget blockbuster spot (like last year’s "Inception") will probably be disappointed. Expect possible Visual Effects or Sound Design/Mixing nominations for the film’s spectacular train crash.
Best Picture odds: 20:1

'Bridesmaids'
It’s probably a stretch to say that "Bridesmaids" is Oscar material, but it is one of the biggest hits of the year and a rare critically acclaimed achievement in female comedy. But perhaps female voters will rally around the film and catapult it to a Best Picture nomination to prove that female-oriented comedies can be just as successful as male ones. Perhaps, but probably not.
Best Picture odds: 30:1

'Transformers: Dark of the Moon'
"Dark of the Moon" is Michael Bay’s magnum opus. Filled with gratuitous butt shots, fantastic explosions, mind-blowing CGI and a Shakespearean performance from Optimus Prime… oh who are we kidding? There’s no chance this thing’s getting nominated for Best Picture.
Best Picture odds: 1,000:1

What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 150 days to go.

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Seligman,1,michael bay,3,michael caine,1,michael fassbender,2,Michael Gold,1,michael moore,1,michael shannon,1,Michael Strahan,3,Michele Josue,1,Mike Myers,1,military,1,Milk,2,Milo Ventimiglia,1,Minions,1,mitchell,2,mo'nique,1,molnar,213,monsieur lazhar,1,monsters,1,monsters ball,1,monsters university,2,moonlit studios,1,moonrise kingdom,1,morgan freeman,3,mountains,1,Movie,3,Movie 43,1,movies,162,mtvU,11,mtvU.com,6,muppets,1,muppets most wanted,1,murphy,3,music,20,musical,8,Must List,1,myhre,1,natalie portman,1,national board of review,1,nbc,5,need for speed,1,needham,3,Neighbors,1,neil meron,14,neil patrick harris,12,Neill Blomkamp,1,Neve Campbell,1,Never Too Early Movie Predictions,1,new address,1,New York,3,New York Times,2,news roundup,13,Nick Robinson,1,Nickelodeon,6,nicole kidman,1,Nielsen,1,night at the museum,1,Nikki Finke,1,noah,2,nominations,76,nominees,41,non-stop,1,noomi rapace,1,norah jones,2,not another happy ending,2,november man,1,Now You See Me,1,numberless,1,nyfcc,1,obituary,4,oblivion,4,obsesson,1,Octavia Spencer,1,odd life,2,ohio,10,olympus has fallen,1,omaze,1,on the day,2,on the red carpet,10,on the waterfront,1,ona,2,one direction,1,open air theater,1,Open Heart,1,open letter,1,opening monologue,3,Oprah,7,orchestra,1,ordinary love,1,organization,2,original score,10,original song,21,oscar,3,Oscar Central,2,Oscar Concert,2,oscar Etiquette,1,oscar fan experience,1,Oscar Journey,1,oscar millionaire,1,oscar night america,1,oscar night american,2,oscar odds,11,Oscar pool,2,oscar race,1,oscar roadtrip,1,Oscar Special,3,Oscar Sunday,16,oscar update,19,oscar week,2,Oscar.com,15,Oscars,265,oscars 2014,4,oscars 2015,6,Oscars 2016,39,oscars outdoors,1,Oscars Twist,1,oscars.org,3,otrc,1,out of the furance,1,outside,2,Oz,1,Oz The Great and Powerful,1,pacific rim,2,pagosa springs,1,pain and gain,1,panel,1,paperman,3,paranormal activity,1,Parker,1,party,1,patrick doyle,1,patton oswalt,2,Paul Giamatti,1,Paul Shoulberg,1,PDF,61,Pennebaker,3,performance,12,performers,18,perks of being a wallflower,1,perry janes,2,Peter Facinelli,1,Peter Gabriel,1,peter jackson,5,pharrell williams,2,philomena,1,photos,15,pierce brosnan,1,Piero Tosi,2,Pink,1,Pink Panther,1,pixar,2,planes,5,planet of the apes,3,playing for keeps,1,podcast,2,Polich Tallix,1,poll,1,pool,1,pop culture,4,pop-up shop,2,poster,4,pre-show,4,prediction central,40,predictions,62,premium rush,2,preparations,6,presenters,16,preservation,1,president,3,President Tuxedo,1,press room,1,preview,14,primetime emmys,15,print,2,printable,59,prisoners,2,prizes,1,producer,4,producers,19,production design,12,production designer,12,profile,1,programming,2,Project Runway,1,promotions,10,pros,1,q and a,1,Quartet,1,Queen Latifah,1,quick,15,quiz,2,R.S. Owens,2,radio,7,Randy Haberkamp,3,ratings,2,Ratner,1,Ray Dolby Ballroom,2,Ray Romano,1,reactions,4,recap,8,Red 2,1,red carpet,60,red dawn,1,Reginald Hudlin,2,Regis Philbin,1,reminder list,13,reporters,3,resident evil,1,results,6,Rethink.,1,review,175,Richard Ayoade,1,Richard Linklater,1,Richard Wagner,1,ricky gervais,2,ridley scott,2,rio 2,1,rise of guardians,1,rise of the planet of the apes,1,road to nominations,18,roadtrip,1,rob epstein,1,Rob Marshall,1,Robert Downey Jr,2,Robert Lopez,3,Robert Morton,1,Robert Osborne,1,Robert Stromberg,1,Robert Zemeckis,1,robertson,2,Robin Roberts,4,robin swicord,1,robin williams,1,robocop,1,robots,1,Rockwell Group,1,Roger Ebert,2,romcom,1,ron howard,1,rosamund pike,1,rosen,1,roskam,1,round table,1,Royce Hall,1,RSS,1,rules,9,rumor,1,rush,1,Russell Crowe,4,ryan gosling,1,ryan seacrest,2,sag awards,15,sailcloth,1,Sally Field,2,samsara,1,samuel goldwyn theater,13,Samuel L. Jackson,2,Sandra Bullock,3,Santa Monica Civic Auditorium,1,Sarah,1,saturday night live,1,Savannah Guthrie,1,saving mr. banks,4,Scarlett Johannson,2,scary movie,1,schedule,4,sci-fi,6,scitech,5,score,2,screen actors guild,14,screeners,1,secret,1,secret life of walter mitty,2,Seligman,1,semi-finalists,2,Sequoia Productions,1,set,3,set design,12,seth macfarlane,5,seth meyers,1,Seth Rogen,1,setup,3,shame,1,shawshank trail,2,shooting,2,shortlist,93,shorts,27,Sid Ganis,5,side effects,1,Sidney Poitier,1,silver linings,2,silver linings playbook,1,sin city,1,skyfall,3,skype,2,sleeping beauty,1,slider,8,Slumdog Millionaire,4,SNL,6,sofia coppola,1,somewhere,1,Son of Saul,1,sony pictures,1,Sound of Music,1,soundtrack,2,space,3,space opera,1,sparkle,1,special event,3,special guests,2,spencer,1,spider-man,1,Spielberg,3,Spike Lee,1,spotify,2,spreecast,3,Stanley Weber,1,star,1,star at the movies,99,Star Trek,2,star wars,2,statistics,4,statuette,11,step up revolution,1,stephen king,1,Stephenie Meyer,1,steve bass,1,Steve Carell,1,steve jobs,1,Steve Martin,3,Steven Soderbergh,1,Stevens,3,store,1,streaming,1,student academy awards,6,students,3,submissions,6,submitted,4,Sugar Man,1,summer,43,summer movies,51,super 8,1,superman,1,sweepstakes,1,Sylvester Stallone,1,symposiums,4,Taken 2,1,tally,6,tammy,1,tbt,2,TCM,1,team oscar,4,technology,2,ted,1,teenage mutant ninja turtles,2,telecast,89,television,7,television academy,1,telluride,2,thank you,1,That Awkward Moment,1,thats my boy,1,the artist,1,the avengers,3,the best man holiday,1,the butler,2,the buzz,5,the campaign,1,The Class,1,The counselor,1,the croods,3,the dark world,1,the Descendants,1,the drop,1,the fighter,1,the force awakens,1,the giver,1,the gold knight,5,the heat,1,the hobbit,8,The Host,1,the illusionist,1,the impossible,1,the king's speech,3,The LEGO movie,3,The Lone Ranger,3,the maze runner,1,The Moon Song,1,The Oscars,26,The Other Woman,1,The Public Transportation Snob,1,The Purge,1,The Reader,2,The Rock,1,the shawshank redemption,2,the smurfs,1,the social network,2,the view,1,the watch,1,The Winter Soldier,3,The Wrap,1,theatre,6,theme,4,this is the end,1,thor,3,thriller,6,throwback thursday,3,thrust stage,1,tiger boy,1,Tim Burton,1,Tim Gunn,1,timelapse,2,timeline,7,tina fey,9,Tina Gordon Chism,1,titanic,1,today show,1,toledo,81,toledo free press,110,tom brokaw,1,tom cruise,4,tom hanks,2,tom hardy,2,Tom Hooper,1,Tom Oyer,2,Tom Sherak,8,Tommy Lee Jones,3,tony awards,7,Top 10,15,top 3,3,toronto,3,total recall,2,tournament,1,trailer,1,train plane and automobile,1,Transcendence,1,transformation,2,transformers,2,transparency,1,travel,1,tree of life,1,trent reznor,1,tribute,1,tron,1,tron: legacy,1,trouble with the curve,2,true grit,1,turbo,1,tusk,1,tuxedo,1,tv,5,tv guide,1,twilight,1,Twitter,6,Ty Simpkins,1,Tyler Perry,2,tyson beckford,1,U2,2,UCLA,1,unexpected journey,1,united airlines,1,universal,1,university of michigan,2,USA Today,1,uzo aduba,2,vacation,2,venice,2,video,152,video on demand,3,Vince Vaughn,1,viola davis,1,Virginia Madsen,1,visual effects,14,VOD,1,voting,18,vulture,1,WALL-E,1,Wally Pfister,1,walmart,1,walt disney world,3,Walter,1,Wanda Sykes,1,Warm Bodies,1,warner bros.,2,Way Way Back,1,waynes world,1,website,5,wes anderson,1,what we know,4,white house,2,whitney houston,1,who wants to be a millionaire,1,whoopi goldberg,2,will ferrell,1,will smith,1,William H. Macy,1,william ross,1,winners,25,Wizard of Oz,2,wnwo,54,wnwo today,54,wolf of wall street,2,wolfgang puck,1,Wolverine,1,wonder woman,1,wonder women,1,wont back down,1,world,6,world war z,2,worlds end,1,wreck-it ralph,2,wspd,1,wtol,45,x-men,2,year in review,3,youre next,1,YouTube,97,Zac Efron,2,zach galifianakis,1,Zaineb Abdul-Nabi,1,Zap2It,1,zarafa,1,Zero Dark Thirty,1,zoe saldana,1,zombies,1,zug,2,
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight: Oscar Odds: 200 days to go… what movies are in?
Oscar Odds: 200 days to go… what movies are in?
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight
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