Oscar Odds 2013: 150 days to go… what movies are in?

OSCAR ODDS: Correspondent Devin Fuller looks at some of the current box office fare's best chances at Best Picture nominations come Oscar time. The 85th Academy Awards are now 150 days away. Take a look at the odds.

By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook

The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) has emerged over the last several years as a key location for Oscar buzz. It’s now more or less the unofficial start of Oscar season. Previous Best Picture winners “The King’s Speech” and “Slumdog Millionaire” both took the People’s Choice Award during their respective years, and plenty of other films with Oscar aspirations have lined the program. The 2012 schedule was no different. Let’s take a look at some of the key players at this year’s fest and rank their Best Picture odds with 150 days until the 85th Academy Awards:


‘Silver Linings Playbook’
Silver Linings Playbook” received the biggest Oscar bump from TIFF after winning the People’s Choice Award. Starring Bradley Cooper and previous Academy Award nominee Jennifer Lawrence (having a banner year after “The Hunger Games”) and written and directed by David O. Russell, the film has already gained its share of supporters who will fight passionately for it. And the folks at GoldDerby think the film has multiple nominations in the bag. There’s always the danger that a film can burn out when it receives this much praise so soon, but if the film caters to older straight white men as much as GoldDerby’s Tom O’Neil thinks it does, the race might be over before it’s even begun.
Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 3:2


‘The Master’
So far the only film on this new list to be released in theaters, “The Master” has been a bit divisive among critics and audiences. Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman have received nearly unanimous praise for their intense performances, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s subdued exploration of the cult mentality has left many dumbfounded. More than one critic has suggested that the film needs to be seen twice for its many possible meanings to be fully grasped, but one would ideally need to like the film enough to see it a second time. In spite of its dissenters, the cult of PTA (whose last film “There Will Be Blood” has been called the best film of the last decade) will ensure that “The Master” remains one to watch this upcoming Oscar season.
Odds: 5:1


‘Argo’
Ben Affleck’s third feature film documents the rescue of six U.S. diplomats from Tehran during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis by (spoilers for real life!) convincing the government that they were members of a film crew. Movies saving lives? The Academy will eat this up! “Argo” has been criticized for misrepresenting some of the events that occurred, but the Academy has never been one to demand historical accuracy. Affleck’s directing career has been on the up and up, with “The Town” coming this close to receiving a Best Picture nomination in 2010. “Argo” just might be the film that sets up Affleck as a force to be reckoned with.
Odds: 6:1


‘Anna Karenina’
After experimenting with contemporary cinema (“The Soloist” and “Hanna”), director Joe Wright returns back to the period pieces he built his career on with his adaptation of Leo Tolstoy’s “Anna Karenina.” The film reunites Wright with actress Keira Knightley to tell the tragic tale of romance. The Academy loves a good period piece, and “Anna Karenina” looks like a film that will surely receive numerous technical and artistic nominations for its production design. Critics have been mostly positive, but the film has not inspired the passionate fervor it may need to snag a nomination.
Odds: 8:1

Updated Odds (see last post):
Beasts of the Southern Wild”: 9:1
Moonrise Kingdom”: 9:1
The Dark Knight Rises”: 10:1
Amour”: 12:1
Magic Mike”: 15:1
Brave”: 15:1
To Rome with Love”: 20:1
Prometheus”: 25:1

Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 100 days to go.

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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news, predictions and insight: Oscar Odds 2013: 150 days to go… what movies are in?
Oscar Odds 2013: 150 days to go… what movies are in?
OSCAR ODDS: Correspondent Devin Fuller looks at some of the current box office fare's best chances at Best Picture nominations come Oscar time. The 85th Academy Awards are now 150 days away. Take a look at the odds.
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news, predictions and insight
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