Final predictions: 90th Academy Awards - Oscars 2018 (updated)

Here are editor James A. Molnar's final predictions for the 90th Academy Awards. In short, some surprises await us on Oscar Sunday.

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When the (correct) envelopes are opened Sunday night at the Dolby Theatre, there could be more than one surprise awaiting the audience at the 90th Academy Awards, especially for Best Picture.

With the most nominations of the year, at 13, just how many awards will “The Shape of Water” take home?

The fantasy film seems to have the Academy’s attention, especially for director Guillermo del Toro and some of the technical categories but will it lead to the big prize for the night?

“Dunkirk” has the second most nominations with eight, including Best Picture and Best Director for Christopher Nolan. Could it be the ultimate spoiler? There’s a chance, especially with the preferential ballot employed for Best Picture by the Academy’s accounting firm, PwC.

That same preferential ballot could also help breakout horror movie “Get Out” take the top prize.

Rounding out the most nominated with seven, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is also not out of the race, with two big performers ready to claim their golden statuettes — Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Supporting Actor.

This all may sound dramatic, but Oscar Sunday always has the ability to surprise and excite over certain categories. There are 7,258 voting members of the Academy, with 774 newly invited members. Thirty percent of the new members are people of color, which represents a 331 percent increase since 2015. Thirty-nine percent of new members are female, representing a 359 percent increase since 2015. Those new members could impact the final vote.

Quite a few of the multi-nominated films will probably walk away empty handed. "Lady Bird" could end up zero wins out of five possible, unless there are surprises for Writing or Directing. "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" will most likely leave without a win in any of the four categories. "Mudbound" could be in for a similar fate for its four nominations, unless there is a surprise in Cinematography.

We'll all find out Sunday night. In the meantime, we're here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot  contest.

Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):


Final Tally
"The Shape of Water" – 4 out of 13 -  3 out of 13 
"Dunkirk" – 3 out of 8 -  3 out of 8 
"Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri" – 2 out of 7 √ Correct
"Darkest Hour" – 2 out of 6 √ Correct
"Phantom Thread" – 1 out of 6 √ Correct
"Blade Runner 2049" – 1 out of 5  -  2 out of 5 
"Lady Bird" – 0 out of 5 √ Correct
"Call Me by Your Name" – 1 out of 4 √ Correct
"Get Out" – 1 out of 4 √ Correct
"Mudbound" – 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"Star Wars: The Last Jedi" – 0 out of 4 √ Correct
"Baby Driver" – 0 out of 3 √ Correct
"I, Tonya" – 1 out of 3 √ Correct
"Beauty and the Beast" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Coco" – 1 out of 2 -  2 out of 2 
"The Post" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct
"Victoria & Abdul" – 0 out of 2 √ Correct

----- FINAL: 18 out of 24 -----

Best Picture √ Correct
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Spoilers: Billboards or Dunkirk

Best Director √ Correct
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Best Actor in a Leading Role √ Correct
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Spoiler: Chalamet

Best Actress in a Leading Role √ Correct
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Best Actor in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role √ Correct
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Spoiler: Metcalf

Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay √ Correct
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Best Writing – Original Screenplay √ Correct
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
Spoiler: Three Billboards

Best Animated Feature Film √ Correct
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Best Cinematography √ Correct
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger A. Deakins (FINALLY!!)
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
Spoiler: Mudbound (first female cinematographer nominated)

Best Costume Design √ Correct
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle
Spoiler: Shape

Best Documentary – Feature X Incorrect
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
Spoiler: Icarus

Best Documentary – Short Subject X Incorrect
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon
“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner
Spoiler: Heaven

Best Film Editing √ Correct
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory
Spoiler: Baby Driver

Best Foreign Language Film X Incorrect
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)
Spoiler: A Fantastic Woman

Best Makeup and Hairstyling √ Correct
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten
Spoiler: Wonder

Best Music – Original Score √ Correct
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
Spoilers: Phantom Thread

Best Music – Original Song X Incorrect
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Spoiler: Coco

Best Production Design √ Correct
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
Spoiler: Blade Runner

Best Short Film – Animated √ Correct
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer
Spoiler: Garden Party

Best Short Film – Live Action
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen
Spoiler: The Eleven O’Clock

Best Sound Editing √ Correct
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
Spoiler: Blade Runner

Best Sound Mixing √ Correct
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick
Spoiler: Baby Driver

Best Visual Effects X Incorrect
“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist 
Spoiler: Blade Runner

The 90th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2017, will be presented on Sunday, March 4, 2018, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide. Jimmy Kimmel hosts.