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Oscar Odds: 150 days to go… what movies are in?

By Devin Fuller TGK Correspondent With 150 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year...

By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent

With 150 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, let’s consider the Oscar Odds of some of this year’s early contenders. It has been 50 days since we last evaluated the year’s potential Best Picture nominees, and since then a few more films have popped up to try and gain Oscar’s attention. In this round we have a deadly virus, MMA fighters, a stunt driver, housemaids, a general manager and a few retired government agents. Will any of them take home Oscar gold? Here are the odds:


'The Help'
The closest to a sure thing in this crop of contenders, "The Help" is both a critical and commercial success. Based on the best-selling book by Kathryn Stockett, "The Help" has already grossed more than $140 million at the box office. Director Tate Taylor burst out of virtually nowhere to deliver a surprise hit in the doldrums of summer, and Academy voters are not likely to overlook this fact. The film’s material is Oscar bait (black housemaids overcoming racism in 1960s Louisiana), the performances are memorable (especially Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer) and there is even a little bit of controversy to keep tongues wagging. So far, "The Help" is the one to beat.
Best Picture Odds: 2:3

'Moneyball'
Based on a true story, Bennett Miller’s "Moneyball" could easily become this year’s Oscar “sports movie.” Think "The Blind Side" or "Seabiscuit." Starring two-time Academy Award nominee Brad Pitt, Academy Award winner Philip Seymour Hoffman and funny guy Jonah Hill, the film is an underdog story about general manager Billy Beane’s attempt to put together a baseball club using computer-generated analysis. Positive reviews and a script by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin (who just won an Academy Award for "The Social Network") ensure it as a definite player for Oscar gold. Plus, we know the Academy will take any chance they can to get Brangelina to attend the ceremony. (Read: The TGK review.)
Best Picture Odds: 8:1

'Warrior'
Mixing feuding brothers, tough parents and lots of people smacking each other around, Gavin O’Connor’s MMA drama certainly shares DNA with last year’s Best Picture nominee "The Fighter," and Lionsgate has been pushing it hard for Academy attention. Despite good reviews, the film hasn’t really broken out with audiences the way "The Fighter" did though. Tom Hardy and Joel Edgerton both give fine performances, but if anyone’s getting a nod, it will be Nick Nolte, who is giving some career-best work. But the Academy is unlikely to recognize two sports movies, and "Moneyball" has a far more distinguished pedigree than "Warrior."
Best Picture Odds: 10:1

'Drive'
Nicolas Winding Refn’s film won the prize for Best Director at Cannes, received rave reviews and features Academy Award nominees Ryan Gosling and Carey Mulligan in its lead roles. However, it’s also a shockingly violent genre thriller about a stunt man who moonlights as a getaway driver — not typical Oscar material. Yet Refn executes "Drive" with such efficient style and effortlessness that it could definitely be a dark horse contender. It had a soft opening, but if it takes any critic’s prizes this fall, it could definitely steal a nomination from another film that might not meet expectations.
Best Picture Odds: 10:1

'Contagion'
Directed by Stephen Soderbergh with an all-star cast, "Contagion" follows what happens after a deadly virus breaks out across the world (naturally, Gwyneth Paltrow is responsible). Big, shiny names like Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Matt Damon and Marion Cotillard lend their talents to Soderbergh’s grand and scary vision, and the film makes an effective PSA for washing one’s hands. "Contagion" is comparable to "Traffic" in that it’s centered around multiple people responding to a single issue, but that’s about where the similarities end. "Contagion" is riveting stuff (and apparently scientifically accurate), but it’s not going to be a player at this year’s Academy Awards.
Best Picture Odds: 15:1

'The Debt'
John Madden last had a date with Oscar for 1998’s Best Picture winner "Shakespeare in Love." But while the film won the night’s biggest prize, the Best Director award went to Steven Spielberg for "Saving Private Ryan." "The Debt" boasts a cast including Academy Award winner Helen Mirren, "Avatar" star Sam Worthington, and buzzed about newcomer (and "The Help" star) Jessica Chastain. And it has a plot involving the Holocaust, a subject that numerous Oscar winners have mined before ("Schindler’s List," "The Reader"). But no one is really talking about the movie. "The Debt" is proof that a good pedigree is not enough to make it to the Oscar race.
Best Picture Odds: 20:1

What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 100 days to go.

Previous odds
"Midnight in Paris" — Best Picture odds: 2:3
"The Tree of Life" — Best Picture odds: 3:2
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Beginners" – Best Picture odds: 12:1
"Jane Eyre" – Best Picture odds: 13:1
"Cars 2" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Meek’s Cutoff" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Super 8" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Bridesmaids" – Best Picture odds: 30:1
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" – Best Picture odds: 1,000:1
(Read the full post here.)

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Owens,2,radio,7,Randy Haberkamp,3,ratings,2,Ratner,1,Ray Dolby Ballroom,2,Ray Romano,1,reactions,4,recap,8,Red 2,1,red carpet,60,red dawn,1,Reginald Hudlin,2,Regis Philbin,1,reminder list,13,reporters,3,resident evil,1,results,6,Rethink.,1,review,175,Richard Ayoade,1,Richard Linklater,1,Richard Wagner,1,ricky gervais,2,ridley scott,2,rio 2,1,rise of guardians,1,rise of the planet of the apes,1,road to nominations,18,roadtrip,1,rob epstein,1,Rob Marshall,1,Robert Downey Jr,2,Robert Lopez,3,Robert Morton,1,Robert Osborne,1,Robert Stromberg,1,Robert Zemeckis,1,robertson,2,Robin Roberts,4,robin swicord,1,robin williams,1,robocop,1,robots,1,Rockwell Group,1,Roger Ebert,2,romcom,1,ron howard,1,rosamund pike,1,rosen,1,roskam,1,round table,1,Royce Hall,1,RSS,1,rules,9,rumor,1,rush,1,Russell Crowe,4,ryan gosling,1,ryan seacrest,2,sag awards,15,sailcloth,1,Sally Field,2,samsara,1,samuel goldwyn theater,13,Samuel L. Jackson,2,Sandra Bullock,3,Santa Monica Civic Auditorium,1,Sarah,1,saturday night live,1,Savannah Guthrie,1,saving mr. banks,4,Scarlett Johannson,2,scary movie,1,schedule,4,sci-fi,6,scitech,5,score,2,screen actors guild,14,screeners,1,secret,1,secret life of walter mitty,2,Seligman,1,semi-finalists,2,Sequoia Productions,1,set,3,set design,12,seth macfarlane,5,seth meyers,1,Seth Rogen,1,setup,3,shame,1,shawshank trail,2,shooting,2,shortlist,93,shorts,27,Sid Ganis,5,side effects,1,Sidney Poitier,1,silver linings,2,silver linings playbook,1,sin city,1,skyfall,3,skype,2,sleeping beauty,1,slider,8,Slumdog Millionaire,4,SNL,6,sofia coppola,1,somewhere,1,Son of Saul,1,sony pictures,1,Sound of Music,1,soundtrack,2,space,3,space opera,1,sparkle,1,special event,3,special guests,2,spencer,1,spider-man,1,Spielberg,3,Spike Lee,1,spotify,2,spreecast,3,Stanley Weber,1,star,1,star at the movies,99,Star Trek,2,star wars,2,statistics,4,statuette,11,step up revolution,1,stephen king,1,Stephenie Meyer,1,steve bass,1,Steve Carell,1,steve jobs,1,Steve Martin,3,Steven Soderbergh,1,Stevens,3,store,1,streaming,1,student academy awards,6,students,3,submissions,6,submitted,4,Sugar Man,1,summer,43,summer movies,51,super 8,1,superman,1,sweepstakes,1,Sylvester Stallone,1,symposiums,4,Taken 2,1,tally,6,tammy,1,tbt,2,TCM,1,team oscar,4,technology,2,ted,1,teenage mutant ninja turtles,2,telecast,89,television,7,television academy,1,telluride,2,thank you,1,That Awkward Moment,1,thats my boy,1,the artist,1,the avengers,3,the best man holiday,1,the butler,2,the buzz,5,the campaign,1,The Class,1,The counselor,1,the croods,3,the dark world,1,the Descendants,1,the drop,1,the fighter,1,the force awakens,1,the giver,1,the gold knight,5,the heat,1,the hobbit,8,The Host,1,the illusionist,1,the impossible,1,the king's speech,3,The LEGO movie,3,The Lone Ranger,3,the maze runner,1,The Moon Song,1,The Oscars,26,The Other Woman,1,The Public Transportation Snob,1,The Purge,1,The Reader,2,The Rock,1,the shawshank redemption,2,the smurfs,1,the social network,2,the view,1,the watch,1,The Winter Soldier,3,The Wrap,1,theatre,5,theme,4,this is the end,1,thor,3,thriller,6,throwback thursday,3,thrust stage,1,tiger boy,1,Tim Burton,1,Tim Gunn,1,timelapse,2,timeline,7,tina fey,9,Tina Gordon Chism,1,titanic,1,today show,1,toledo,81,toledo free press,110,tom brokaw,1,tom cruise,4,tom hanks,2,tom hardy,2,Tom Hooper,1,Tom Oyer,2,Tom Sherak,8,Tommy Lee Jones,3,tony awards,6,Top 10,15,top 3,3,toronto,3,total recall,2,tournament,1,trailer,1,train plane and automobile,1,Transcendence,1,transformation,2,transformers,2,transparency,1,travel,1,tree of life,1,trent reznor,1,tribute,1,tron,1,tron: legacy,1,trouble with the curve,2,true grit,1,turbo,1,tusk,1,tuxedo,1,tv,5,tv guide,1,twilight,1,Twitter,6,Ty Simpkins,1,Tyler Perry,2,tyson beckford,1,U2,2,UCLA,1,unexpected journey,1,united airlines,1,universal,1,university of michigan,2,USA Today,1,uzo aduba,2,vacation,2,venice,2,video,152,video on demand,3,Vince Vaughn,1,viola davis,1,Virginia Madsen,1,visual effects,14,VOD,1,voting,18,vulture,1,WALL-E,1,Wally Pfister,1,walmart,1,walt disney world,3,Walter,1,Wanda Sykes,1,Warm Bodies,1,warner bros.,2,Way Way Back,1,waynes world,1,website,5,wes anderson,1,what we know,4,white house,2,whitney houston,1,who wants to be a millionaire,1,whoopi goldberg,2,will ferrell,1,will smith,1,William H. Macy,1,william ross,1,winners,25,Wizard of Oz,2,wnwo,54,wnwo today,54,wolf of wall street,2,wolfgang puck,1,Wolverine,1,wonder woman,1,wonder women,1,wont back down,1,world,6,world war z,2,worlds end,1,wreck-it ralph,2,wspd,1,wtol,45,x-men,2,year in review,3,youre next,1,YouTube,97,Zac Efron,2,zach galifianakis,1,Zaineb Abdul-Nabi,1,Zap2It,1,zarafa,1,Zero Dark Thirty,1,zoe saldana,1,zombies,1,zug,2,
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight: Oscar Odds: 150 days to go… what movies are in?
Oscar Odds: 150 days to go… what movies are in?
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight
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