Tuesday, January 8, 2013

85th Academy Awards nominations predictions (updated)


The Gold Knight Blog has been working on its list of potential Academy Awards nominees since last year with Prediction Central. After closely following the odds and all of awards season, this editor and fanatic is ready to predict the nominees in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence. Accuracy for the past two years: 79/119, ~ 66.4%, in 2012 and 91/120, ~75.8%, in 2011.

Final Score: 84/122, 68.9%

Final Nominations Tally Prediction:
"Lincoln": 12
"Django Unchained": 9 5
"Zero Dark Thirty": 8 5
"Les Misérables": 8 
"Life of Pi": 7 11
"Argo": 6 7
"Silver Linings Playbook": 5 8
"Skyfall": 5 

Best Picture 8/9
"Argo"
"Beast of the Southern Wild"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Dark Horses:
"Skyfall"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
+"Amour"
"Flight"

Best Director 2/5
Ben Affleck, "Argo"
Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"
+Michaek Haneke, "Amour"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"
+Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Dark Horses:
+David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Tom Hooper," Les Misérables"

Best Actor in a Leading Role 4/5
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Dark Horses:
Jean Louis Trintignant, "Amour"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
+Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"


Best Actress in a Leading Role 4/5
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Dark Horses:
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
+Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 3/5
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Javier Bardem, "Skyfall"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
+Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"


Dark Horses:
+Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Mathew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role 4/5
    Amy Adams, "The Master"
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
    Sally Field, "Lincoln"
    Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
    Maggie Smith, "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

    Dark Horses:
    +Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
    Kelly Reilly, "Flight"

    Best Writing — Adapted Screenplay 4/5
    "Argo"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    "Perks of Being a Wallflower" :(
    "Silver Linings Playbook"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

    Best Writing — Original Screenplay 4/5
    "Amour"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Looper"
    "Moonrise Kingdom"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Flight"
    "The Master"

    Best Animated Feature Film 4/5
    "Brave"
    "Frankenweenie"
    "ParaNorman"
    "Rise of the Guardians"
    "Wreck-It Ralph"
    +"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"

    Dark Horses:
    "A Liar's Autobiography"
    "The Painting"
    "Zarafa"

    Best Cinematography 4/5
    "Django Unchained"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Anna Karenina"
    "The Master"

    Best Costume Design 4/5
    "Anna Karenina"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Mirror Mirror"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Snow White and the Huntsman"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Lincoln"

    Best Documentary — Feature 3/5
    +"5 Broken Cameras"
    "Bully"
    "Detropia"
    "The Gatekeepers"
    "How to Survive a Plague"
    "Searching for Sugar Man"

    Dark Horses:
    "This is Not a Film"
    +"The Invisible War"

    Best Documentary — Short Subject 3/5
    "Inocente," Shine Global, Inc.
    +"Kings Point"
    +"Mondays at Racine"
    "Open Heart," Urban Landscapes Inc.
    "Paraíso," The Strangebird Company
    "The Perfect Fit," SDI Productions Ltd.
    "Redemption," Downtown Docs

    Best Film Editing 4/5
    "Argo"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    +"Silver Linings Playbook"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Foreign Language Film 4/5
    Austria, "Amour," Michael Haneke, director;
    Canada, "War Witch," Kim Nguyen, director;
    Chile, "No," Pablo Larraín, director;
    Denmark, "A Royal Affair," Nikolaj Arcel, director;
    France, "The Intouchables," Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors;

    Dark Horses:
    Iceland, "The Deep," Baltasar Kormákur, director;
    +Norway, "Kon-Tiki," Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg, directors;
    Romania, "Beyond the Hills," Cristian Mungiu, director.

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1/3
    "Lincoln"
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    "Men in Black 3"

    Dark Horses:
    +“Hitchcock”
    +“Les Misérables”

    Best Music — Original Score 3/5
    Alexandre Desplat, "Argo"
    Mychael Danna, "Life of Pi"
    Reinhold Heil and Johnny Klimek, "Cloud Atlas"
    +Dario Marianelli, "Anna Karenina"
    John Williams, "Lincoln"
    Dan Romer & Beng Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
    +Thomas Newman, "Skyfall"

    Dark Horse:
    Alexandre Desplat, "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Music — Original Song 2/5
    "Ancora Qui" ("Django Unchained")
    +"Before My Time" ("Chasing Ice")
    +"Everybody Needs A Best Friend ("Ted")
    "Learn Me Right" (Birdy/Mumford & Sons, "Brave")
    "Skyfall" (Adele, "Skyfall")
    "Song of the Lonely Mountain" ("The Hobbit")
    "Suddenly" (Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables")

    Dark Horse:
    +"Pi's Lullaby" ("Life of Pi")

    Best Production Design (formerly Art Direction)  4/5
    "Anna Karenina"
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "The Hobbit"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Lincoln"

    Dark Horses:
    +"Life of Pi"
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "The Master"

    Best Short Film — Animated 3/5
    +"Adam and Dog"
    "Combustible"
    "Fresh Guacamole"
    +"Head over Heels"
    "Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"
    "The Paperman"
    "Tram"

    Best Short Film — Live Action 2/5
    +"Asad"
    +"Buzkashi Boys"
    "A Fábrica (The Factory)"
    "Curfew"
    "Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)"
    +"Henry"
    "The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars"
    "When You Find Me"

    Best Sound Editing 3/5
    "The Avengers"
    +"Argo"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Flight"
    +"Life of Pi"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horses:
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "Prometheus"

    Best Sound Mixing 3/5
    +"Argo"
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Lincoln"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horses:
    "The Hobbit"
    "Django Unchained"
    +"Life of Pi"

    Best Visual Effects 4/5
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Marvel's The Avengers"
    "Prometheus"
    +"Snow White and the Huntsman"

    Dark Horses:
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "Skyfall"


    Please share your predictions by commenting on this post or on Facebook or interacting with us on Twitter.

    We are TWO DAYS away from the 85th Academy Awards nominations announcement, which will be announced live by Oscar host Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013, at 5:35 a.m. PT. Watch the Academy's live webcast right here on The Gold Knight Blog Thursday morning.

    The 85th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2012, will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.

    1 comment:

    1. Can you please confirm if this is your final submission for the Film Actually Oscar Contest? The deadline is coming up.

      Thanks

      ReplyDelete

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