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85th Academy Awards nominations predictions (updated)

After closely following the odds and all of awards season, James makes his predictions for the 85th Academy Awards nominations in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence.


The Gold Knight Blog has been working on its list of potential Academy Awards nominees since last year with Prediction Central. After closely following the odds and all of awards season, this editor and fanatic is ready to predict the nominees in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence. Accuracy for the past two years: 79/119, ~ 66.4%, in 2012 and 91/120, ~75.8%, in 2011.

Final Score: 84/122, 68.9%

Final Nominations Tally Prediction:
"Lincoln": 12
"Django Unchained": 9 5
"Zero Dark Thirty": 8 5
"Les Misérables": 8 
"Life of Pi": 7 11
"Argo": 6 7
"Silver Linings Playbook": 5 8
"Skyfall": 5 

Best Picture 8/9
"Argo"
"Beast of the Southern Wild"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Dark Horses:
"Skyfall"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
+"Amour"
"Flight"

Best Director 2/5
Ben Affleck, "Argo"
Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"
+Michaek Haneke, "Amour"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"
+Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Dark Horses:
+David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Tom Hooper," Les Misérables"

Best Actor in a Leading Role 4/5
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Dark Horses:
Jean Louis Trintignant, "Amour"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
+Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"


Best Actress in a Leading Role 4/5
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Dark Horses:
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
+Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 3/5
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Javier Bardem, "Skyfall"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
+Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"


Dark Horses:
+Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Mathew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role 4/5
    Amy Adams, "The Master"
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
    Sally Field, "Lincoln"
    Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
    Maggie Smith, "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

    Dark Horses:
    +Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
    Kelly Reilly, "Flight"

    Best Writing — Adapted Screenplay 4/5
    "Argo"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    "Perks of Being a Wallflower" :(
    "Silver Linings Playbook"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

    Best Writing — Original Screenplay 4/5
    "Amour"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Looper"
    "Moonrise Kingdom"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Flight"
    "The Master"

    Best Animated Feature Film 4/5
    "Brave"
    "Frankenweenie"
    "ParaNorman"
    "Rise of the Guardians"
    "Wreck-It Ralph"
    +"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"

    Dark Horses:
    "A Liar's Autobiography"
    "The Painting"
    "Zarafa"

    Best Cinematography 4/5
    "Django Unchained"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Anna Karenina"
    "The Master"

    Best Costume Design 4/5
    "Anna Karenina"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Mirror Mirror"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Snow White and the Huntsman"

    Dark Horse:
    +"Lincoln"

    Best Documentary — Feature 3/5
    +"5 Broken Cameras"
    "Bully"
    "Detropia"
    "The Gatekeepers"
    "How to Survive a Plague"
    "Searching for Sugar Man"

    Dark Horses:
    "This is Not a Film"
    +"The Invisible War"

    Best Documentary — Short Subject 3/5
    "Inocente," Shine Global, Inc.
    +"Kings Point"
    +"Mondays at Racine"
    "Open Heart," Urban Landscapes Inc.
    "Paraíso," The Strangebird Company
    "The Perfect Fit," SDI Productions Ltd.
    "Redemption," Downtown Docs

    Best Film Editing 4/5
    "Argo"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Lincoln"
    +"Silver Linings Playbook"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Foreign Language Film 4/5
    Austria, "Amour," Michael Haneke, director;
    Canada, "War Witch," Kim Nguyen, director;
    Chile, "No," Pablo Larraín, director;
    Denmark, "A Royal Affair," Nikolaj Arcel, director;
    France, "The Intouchables," Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors;

    Dark Horses:
    Iceland, "The Deep," Baltasar Kormákur, director;
    +Norway, "Kon-Tiki," Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg, directors;
    Romania, "Beyond the Hills," Cristian Mungiu, director.

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1/3
    "Lincoln"
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    "Men in Black 3"

    Dark Horses:
    +“Hitchcock”
    +“Les Misérables”

    Best Music — Original Score 3/5
    Alexandre Desplat, "Argo"
    Mychael Danna, "Life of Pi"
    Reinhold Heil and Johnny Klimek, "Cloud Atlas"
    +Dario Marianelli, "Anna Karenina"
    John Williams, "Lincoln"
    Dan Romer & Beng Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
    +Thomas Newman, "Skyfall"

    Dark Horse:
    Alexandre Desplat, "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Music — Original Song 2/5
    "Ancora Qui" ("Django Unchained")
    +"Before My Time" ("Chasing Ice")
    +"Everybody Needs A Best Friend ("Ted")
    "Learn Me Right" (Birdy/Mumford & Sons, "Brave")
    "Skyfall" (Adele, "Skyfall")
    "Song of the Lonely Mountain" ("The Hobbit")
    "Suddenly" (Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables")

    Dark Horse:
    +"Pi's Lullaby" ("Life of Pi")

    Best Production Design (formerly Art Direction)  4/5
    "Anna Karenina"
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "The Hobbit"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Lincoln"

    Dark Horses:
    +"Life of Pi"
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "The Master"

    Best Short Film — Animated 3/5
    +"Adam and Dog"
    "Combustible"
    "Fresh Guacamole"
    +"Head over Heels"
    "Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"
    "The Paperman"
    "Tram"

    Best Short Film — Live Action 2/5
    +"Asad"
    +"Buzkashi Boys"
    "A Fábrica (The Factory)"
    "Curfew"
    "Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)"
    +"Henry"
    "The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars"
    "When You Find Me"

    Best Sound Editing 3/5
    "The Avengers"
    +"Argo"
    "Django Unchained"
    "Flight"
    +"Life of Pi"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horses:
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "Prometheus"

    Best Sound Mixing 3/5
    +"Argo"
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Lincoln"
    "Skyfall"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Dark Horses:
    "The Hobbit"
    "Django Unchained"
    +"Life of Pi"

    Best Visual Effects 4/5
    "Cloud Atlas"
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
    "Life of Pi"
    "Marvel's The Avengers"
    "Prometheus"
    +"Snow White and the Huntsman"

    Dark Horses:
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "Skyfall"


    Please share your predictions by commenting on this post or on Facebook or interacting with us on Twitter.

    We are TWO DAYS away from the 85th Academy Awards nominations announcement, which will be announced live by Oscar host Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone on Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013, at 5:35 a.m. PT. Watch the Academy's live webcast right here on The Gold Knight Blog Thursday morning.

    The 85th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2012, will be presented on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 225 countries worldwide.

    COMMENTS

    BLOGGER: 1
    1. Can you please confirm if this is your final submission for the Film Actually Oscar Contest? The deadline is coming up.

      Thanks

      ReplyDelete

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tribune,1,martin freeman,3,martin scorsese,1,marvel,8,mary poppins,1,Maureen O’Hara,2,may 4,5,mccue,1,McG,1,mcginnis,1,media,9,meet the oscars,2,meeting,2,megan fox,1,Megan Telles,6,Melancholia,1,Melissa McCarthy,3,membership,10,men in black,1,Meryl Streep,5,mesa verde,1,Michael B. Seligman,1,michael bay,3,michael caine,1,michael fassbender,2,Michael Gold,1,michael moore,1,michael shannon,1,Michael Strahan,3,Michele Josue,1,Mike Myers,1,military,1,Milk,2,Milo Ventimiglia,1,Minions,1,mitchell,2,mo'nique,1,molnar,213,monsieur lazhar,1,monsters,1,monsters ball,1,monsters university,2,moonlit studios,1,moonrise kingdom,1,morgan freeman,3,mountains,1,Movie,3,Movie 43,1,movies,162,mtvU,11,mtvU.com,6,muppets,1,muppets most wanted,1,murphy,3,music,20,musical,8,Must List,1,myhre,1,natalie portman,1,national board of review,1,nbc,5,need for speed,1,needham,3,Neighbors,1,neil meron,14,neil patrick harris,12,Neill Blomkamp,1,Neve Campbell,1,Never Too Early Movie Predictions,1,new address,1,New York,3,New York Times,2,news roundup,13,Nick Robinson,1,Nickelodeon,6,nicole kidman,1,Nielsen,1,night at the museum,1,Nikki Finke,1,noah,2,nominations,76,nominees,41,non-stop,1,noomi rapace,1,norah jones,2,not another happy ending,2,november man,1,Now You See Me,1,numberless,1,nyfcc,1,obituary,4,oblivion,4,obsesson,1,Octavia Spencer,1,odd life,2,ohio,10,olympus has fallen,1,omaze,1,on the day,2,on the red carpet,10,on the waterfront,1,ona,2,one direction,1,open air theater,1,Open Heart,1,open letter,1,opening monologue,3,Oprah,7,orchestra,1,ordinary love,1,organization,2,original score,10,original song,21,oscar,3,Oscar Central,2,Oscar Concert,2,oscar Etiquette,1,oscar fan experience,1,Oscar Journey,1,oscar millionaire,1,oscar night america,1,oscar night american,2,oscar odds,11,Oscar pool,2,oscar race,1,oscar roadtrip,1,Oscar Special,3,Oscar Sunday,16,oscar update,19,oscar week,2,Oscar.com,15,Oscars,264,oscars 2014,4,oscars 2015,6,Oscars 2016,39,oscars outdoors,1,Oscars Twist,1,oscars.org,3,otrc,1,out of the furance,1,outside,2,Oz,1,Oz The Great and Powerful,1,pacific rim,2,pagosa springs,1,pain and gain,1,panel,1,paperman,3,paranormal activity,1,Parker,1,party,1,patrick doyle,1,patton oswalt,2,Paul Giamatti,1,Paul Shoulberg,1,PDF,60,Pennebaker,3,performance,12,performers,18,perks of being a wallflower,1,perry janes,2,Peter Facinelli,1,Peter Gabriel,1,peter jackson,5,pharrell williams,2,philomena,1,photos,15,pierce brosnan,1,Piero Tosi,2,Pink,1,Pink Panther,1,pixar,2,planes,5,planet of the apes,3,playing for keeps,1,podcast,2,Polich Tallix,1,poll,1,pool,1,pop culture,4,pop-up shop,2,poster,4,pre-show,4,prediction central,40,predictions,62,premium rush,2,preparations,6,presenters,16,preservation,1,president,3,President Tuxedo,1,press room,1,preview,14,primetime emmys,15,print,2,printable,58,prisoners,2,prizes,1,producer,4,producers,19,production design,12,production designer,12,profile,1,programming,2,Project Runway,1,promotions,10,pros,1,q and a,1,Quartet,1,Queen Latifah,1,quick,15,quiz,2,R.S. Owens,2,radio,7,Randy Haberkamp,3,ratings,2,Ratner,1,Ray Dolby Ballroom,2,Ray Romano,1,reactions,4,recap,8,Red 2,1,red carpet,60,red dawn,1,Reginald Hudlin,2,Regis Philbin,1,reminder list,13,reporters,3,resident evil,1,results,6,Rethink.,1,review,175,Richard Ayoade,1,Richard Linklater,1,Richard Wagner,1,ricky gervais,2,ridley scott,2,rio 2,1,rise of guardians,1,rise of the planet of the apes,1,road to nominations,18,roadtrip,1,rob epstein,1,Rob Marshall,1,Robert Downey Jr,2,Robert Lopez,3,Robert Morton,1,Robert Osborne,1,Robert Stromberg,1,Robert Zemeckis,1,robertson,2,Robin Roberts,4,robin swicord,1,robin williams,1,robocop,1,robots,1,Rockwell Group,1,Roger Ebert,2,romcom,1,ron howard,1,rosamund pike,1,rosen,1,roskam,1,round table,1,Royce Hall,1,RSS,1,rules,9,rumor,1,rush,1,Russell Crowe,4,ryan gosling,1,ryan seacrest,2,sag awards,15,sailcloth,1,Sally Field,2,samsara,1,samuel goldwyn theater,13,Samuel L. Jackson,2,Sandra Bullock,3,Santa Monica Civic Auditorium,1,Sarah,1,saturday night live,1,Savannah Guthrie,1,saving mr. banks,4,Scarlett Johannson,2,scary movie,1,schedule,4,sci-fi,6,scitech,5,score,2,screen actors guild,14,screeners,1,secret,1,secret life of walter mitty,2,Seligman,1,semi-finalists,2,Sequoia Productions,1,set,3,set design,12,seth macfarlane,5,seth meyers,1,Seth Rogen,1,setup,3,shame,1,shawshank trail,2,shooting,2,shortlist,93,shorts,27,Sid Ganis,5,side effects,1,Sidney Poitier,1,silver linings,2,silver linings playbook,1,sin city,1,skyfall,3,skype,2,sleeping beauty,1,slider,8,Slumdog Millionaire,4,SNL,6,sofia coppola,1,somewhere,1,Son of Saul,1,sony pictures,1,Sound of Music,1,soundtrack,2,space,3,space opera,1,sparkle,1,special event,3,special guests,2,spencer,1,spider-man,1,Spielberg,3,Spike Lee,1,spotify,2,spreecast,3,Stanley Weber,1,star,1,star at the movies,99,Star Trek,2,star wars,2,statistics,4,statuette,11,step up revolution,1,stephen king,1,Stephenie Meyer,1,steve bass,1,Steve Carell,1,steve jobs,1,Steve Martin,3,Steven Soderbergh,1,Stevens,3,store,1,streaming,1,student academy awards,6,students,3,submissions,6,submitted,4,Sugar Man,1,summer,43,summer movies,51,super 8,1,superman,1,sweepstakes,1,Sylvester Stallone,1,symposiums,4,Taken 2,1,tally,6,tammy,1,tbt,2,TCM,1,team oscar,4,technology,2,ted,1,teenage mutant ninja turtles,2,telecast,89,television,7,television academy,1,telluride,2,thank you,1,That Awkward Moment,1,thats my boy,1,the artist,1,the avengers,3,the best man holiday,1,the butler,2,the buzz,5,the campaign,1,The Class,1,The counselor,1,the croods,3,the dark world,1,the Descendants,1,the drop,1,the fighter,1,the force awakens,1,the giver,1,the gold knight,5,the heat,1,the hobbit,8,The Host,1,the illusionist,1,the impossible,1,the king's speech,3,The LEGO movie,3,The Lone Ranger,3,the maze runner,1,The Moon Song,1,The Oscars,26,The Other Woman,1,The Public Transportation Snob,1,The Purge,1,The Reader,2,The Rock,1,the shawshank redemption,2,the smurfs,1,the social network,2,the view,1,the watch,1,The Winter Soldier,3,The Wrap,1,theatre,5,theme,4,this is the end,1,thor,3,thriller,6,throwback thursday,3,thrust stage,1,tiger boy,1,Tim Burton,1,Tim Gunn,1,timelapse,2,timeline,7,tina fey,9,Tina Gordon Chism,1,titanic,1,today show,1,toledo,81,toledo free press,110,tom brokaw,1,tom cruise,4,tom hanks,2,tom hardy,2,Tom Hooper,1,Tom Oyer,2,Tom Sherak,8,Tommy Lee Jones,3,tony awards,6,Top 10,15,top 3,3,toronto,3,total recall,2,tournament,1,trailer,1,train plane and automobile,1,Transcendence,1,transformation,2,transformers,2,transparency,1,travel,1,tree of life,1,trent reznor,1,tribute,1,tron,1,tron: legacy,1,trouble with the curve,2,true grit,1,turbo,1,tusk,1,tuxedo,1,tv,5,tv guide,1,twilight,1,Twitter,6,Ty Simpkins,1,Tyler Perry,2,tyson beckford,1,U2,2,UCLA,1,unexpected journey,1,united airlines,1,universal,1,university of michigan,2,USA Today,1,uzo aduba,2,vacation,2,venice,2,video,152,video on demand,3,Vince Vaughn,1,viola davis,1,Virginia Madsen,1,visual effects,14,VOD,1,voting,18,vulture,1,WALL-E,1,Wally Pfister,1,walmart,1,walt disney world,3,Walter,1,Wanda Sykes,1,Warm Bodies,1,warner bros.,2,Way Way Back,1,waynes world,1,website,5,wes anderson,1,what we know,4,white house,2,whitney houston,1,who wants to be a millionaire,1,whoopi goldberg,2,will ferrell,1,will smith,1,William H. Macy,1,william ross,1,winners,25,Wizard of Oz,2,wnwo,54,wnwo today,54,wolf of wall street,2,wolfgang puck,1,Wolverine,1,wonder woman,1,wonder women,1,wont back down,1,world,6,world war z,2,worlds end,1,wreck-it ralph,2,wspd,1,wtol,45,x-men,2,year in review,3,youre next,1,YouTube,97,Zac Efron,2,zach galifianakis,1,Zaineb Abdul-Nabi,1,Zap2It,1,zarafa,1,Zero Dark Thirty,1,zoe saldana,1,zombies,1,zug,2,
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    The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight: 85th Academy Awards nominations predictions (updated)
    85th Academy Awards nominations predictions (updated)
    After closely following the odds and all of awards season, James makes his predictions for the 85th Academy Awards nominations in all 24 categories (and potential winners) — with approximately 75 percent confidence.
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bImPf2Js84I/UOuN6tc0PmI/AAAAAAAACok/GB2Py516_Wg/s1600/PredictionCentral_2013nominations_85thOscars.jpg
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    The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight
    http://www.thegoldknight.com/2013/01/85th-academy-awards-nominations-predictions-2013.html
    http://www.thegoldknight.com/
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    http://www.thegoldknight.com/2013/01/85th-academy-awards-nominations-predictions-2013.html
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