OSCAR ODDS: Correspondent Devin Fuller looks at what films have the best chances at Best Picture nominations come Oscar time. The 86th Academy Awards are now 150 days away. Take a look at the odds.
By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
As happens every year, the Toronto International Film Festival rolls along to solidify some of our likely Best Picture contenders. However, the Internet was loudly abuzz early in September after one of the films listed here had its Toronto premiere declaring that the Best Picture race was over and done before it had even started. What were these hyperbolic critics talking about? Could any film really be that good as to declare the Oscar race over? Should I just stop writing these articles now and call it a day? Alas, I'm not going to roll over that easily, even if my job might be much easier at the end of the day!
‘12 Years a Slave’
From the sounds of some pundits after the Toronto Film Festival, it's time to just hand over all of the awards to "12 Years a Slave." Steve McQueen's follow-up to "Shame" stars Chiwetel Ejiofor as a free black Northerner who is taken as a slave during a trip to the South where he remains for, you guessed it, 12 years. The film received rapturous reviews and won the Audience Award at TIFF, which generally goes to crowd pleasers like "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Slumdog Millionaire." And with last year's enjoyable and over-the-top "Django Unchained" receiving a Best Picture nomination, it's possible that the Academy will want to honor a film examining racism and slavery in a much more serious light. Perhaps it's unfair to put so much pressure on a film so early in the season, but it's definitely cemented itself as the contender to beat.
Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 1:2
‘Gravity’
Alfonso Cuarón's first film since 2006's "Children of Men" promises to be one of the biggest visual spectacles of the fall season. The space drama stars Sandra Bullock and George Clooney as astronauts who must try to survive after their space shuttle is damaged by debris. The 3-D film has already wowed critics in Venice and Toronto, and it's likely to do good business at the box office thanks to its bankable leads, spectacular visual effects and high-concept story. It's almost certain to garner a Best Visual Effects nomination and a second Best Actress nomination for Bullock, and a Best Director nomination is also likely for Cuarón. If the rest of the Academy's branches are as impressed by "Gravity," a Best Picture nomination is all but guaranteed.
Oscar Odds: 2:1
‘Inside Llewyn Davis’
The Coen Brothers' latest film is a folk music drama starring Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan and Justin Timberlake. The film premiered earlier this year at Cannes where it won the Grand Prix. Like most of the other films on this list, the film has gotten very strong reviews. The Academy also likes the Coen Brothers as three of their last four films received Best Picture nominations. In all likelihood, "Inside Llewyn Davis" is bound to join them. The film doesn't have its wide release until December, but it will surely build enough buzz and earn enough precursor nominations to be on the Academy's radar.
Oscar Odds 4:1
‘Captain Phillips’
Some are already comparing "Captain Phillips" to last year's Best Picture winner "Argo," and considering the comeback story Ben Affleck's film had, there are certainly worse comparisons to be made. The film is based on the true story of Captain Richard Phillips, who was captaining a ship taken over by Somali pirates in 2009. Paul Greengrass' film premiered just last week at the New York Film Festival, and Tom Hanks has been praised for his performance, which could mark his first Academy Award nomination since 2000's "Cast Away." Greengrass last received a Best Director nomination in 2006 for "United 93," but lost to Martin Scorsese for "The Departed."
Oscar Odds 5:1
‘August: Osage County’
Based on a Pulitzer Award-winning play with a cast full of stars and Oscar winners like Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep, John Wells' "August: Osage County" would seem to have Oscar written all over it. Yet the reception out of Toronto was more one of polite admiration than delirious fervor. Roberts and Streep are contenders for acting awards since they're Roberts and Streep, but cuts to the play's original three hour running time seem to have dampened the overall effect according to some critics. Still, with ten nominees possible and so much pedigree, it's difficult to see the film not receiving a nomination for Best Picture, even if it skids in by the skin of its teeth.
Oscar Odds: 7:1
Updated Odds
"Fruitvale Station": 9:1
"Lee Daniels' The Butler": 12:1
"Blue Jasmine": 14:1
"Blue Is the Warmest Color": 20:1
View previous Oscar Odds posts: 200 days.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 100 days to go.
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
As happens every year, the Toronto International Film Festival rolls along to solidify some of our likely Best Picture contenders. However, the Internet was loudly abuzz early in September after one of the films listed here had its Toronto premiere declaring that the Best Picture race was over and done before it had even started. What were these hyperbolic critics talking about? Could any film really be that good as to declare the Oscar race over? Should I just stop writing these articles now and call it a day? Alas, I'm not going to roll over that easily, even if my job might be much easier at the end of the day! 
‘12 Years a Slave’
From the sounds of some pundits after the Toronto Film Festival, it's time to just hand over all of the awards to "12 Years a Slave." Steve McQueen's follow-up to "Shame" stars Chiwetel Ejiofor as a free black Northerner who is taken as a slave during a trip to the South where he remains for, you guessed it, 12 years. The film received rapturous reviews and won the Audience Award at TIFF, which generally goes to crowd pleasers like "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Slumdog Millionaire." And with last year's enjoyable and over-the-top "Django Unchained" receiving a Best Picture nomination, it's possible that the Academy will want to honor a film examining racism and slavery in a much more serious light. Perhaps it's unfair to put so much pressure on a film so early in the season, but it's definitely cemented itself as the contender to beat.
Oscar Odds for Best Picture: 1:2
‘Gravity’
Alfonso Cuarón's first film since 2006's "Children of Men" promises to be one of the biggest visual spectacles of the fall season. The space drama stars Sandra Bullock and George Clooney as astronauts who must try to survive after their space shuttle is damaged by debris. The 3-D film has already wowed critics in Venice and Toronto, and it's likely to do good business at the box office thanks to its bankable leads, spectacular visual effects and high-concept story. It's almost certain to garner a Best Visual Effects nomination and a second Best Actress nomination for Bullock, and a Best Director nomination is also likely for Cuarón. If the rest of the Academy's branches are as impressed by "Gravity," a Best Picture nomination is all but guaranteed.
Oscar Odds: 2:1
‘Inside Llewyn Davis’
The Coen Brothers' latest film is a folk music drama starring Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan and Justin Timberlake. The film premiered earlier this year at Cannes where it won the Grand Prix. Like most of the other films on this list, the film has gotten very strong reviews. The Academy also likes the Coen Brothers as three of their last four films received Best Picture nominations. In all likelihood, "Inside Llewyn Davis" is bound to join them. The film doesn't have its wide release until December, but it will surely build enough buzz and earn enough precursor nominations to be on the Academy's radar.
Oscar Odds 4:1
‘Captain Phillips’
Some are already comparing "Captain Phillips" to last year's Best Picture winner "Argo," and considering the comeback story Ben Affleck's film had, there are certainly worse comparisons to be made. The film is based on the true story of Captain Richard Phillips, who was captaining a ship taken over by Somali pirates in 2009. Paul Greengrass' film premiered just last week at the New York Film Festival, and Tom Hanks has been praised for his performance, which could mark his first Academy Award nomination since 2000's "Cast Away." Greengrass last received a Best Director nomination in 2006 for "United 93," but lost to Martin Scorsese for "The Departed."
Oscar Odds 5:1
‘August: Osage County’Based on a Pulitzer Award-winning play with a cast full of stars and Oscar winners like Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep, John Wells' "August: Osage County" would seem to have Oscar written all over it. Yet the reception out of Toronto was more one of polite admiration than delirious fervor. Roberts and Streep are contenders for acting awards since they're Roberts and Streep, but cuts to the play's original three hour running time seem to have dampened the overall effect according to some critics. Still, with ten nominees possible and so much pedigree, it's difficult to see the film not receiving a nomination for Best Picture, even if it skids in by the skin of its teeth.
Oscar Odds: 7:1
Updated Odds
"Fruitvale Station": 9:1
"Lee Daniels' The Butler": 12:1
"Blue Jasmine": 14:1
"Blue Is the Warmest Color": 20:1
View previous Oscar Odds posts: 200 days.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 100 days to go.
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