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Oscar Odds: 100 days to go… what movies are in?

By Devin Fuller TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook We only have 100 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, so it’s about time we ...

By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook

We only have 100 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, so it’s about time we started getting serious. It has been 50 days since we last evaluated the state of the race. In this edition of Oscar Odds, The Gold Knight looks at the 15 films most likely to have their names called on January 24 as a Best Picture nominee.

Many of these films haven’t made their way into theaters yet, but we can safely consider them as possibilities based on their buzz, festival performance, pedigree and studio marketing muscle. These odds aren’t about who deserves to win the Oscar, but rather what films will be most appealing to Oscar voters. Anywhere from five to 10 films will be nominated, and they’ll likely be picked out of the list of names here.

Which kind of proverbial dice will each film be rolling come Oscar time? Find out below…

Gold
"War Horse" 1:5
"The Help" 2:3
"The Artist" 2:3
"The Descendants" 3:2
"Moneyball" 2:1


Since we last left our contenders, "The Help" and "Moneyball" have only gained more traction (if Oprah’s speech at the Governors Ball hasn’t guaranteed "The Help" a spot in the running, I don’t know what will). It would be a surprise to see either film missing on Jan. 24. "The Artist" and "The Descendants" have both been big hits at festivals and their respective companies are putting in a lot of marketing muscle. "The Artist," which would be the first silent picture nominated for Best Picture since 1928, will definitely play well to older Oscar voters with its nostalgic look back at Hollywood’s transition to talkies. Also, Harvey Weinstein has not been shy about sticking stars Jean Dujardin and Bérénice Bejo out there as much as possible.


As for "The Descendants," it is the latest film from director Alexander Payne, who won an Oscar for his screenplay for "Sideways" back in 2004. Payne is due back for a visit (especially with Academy favorite George Clooney in tow). But why does "War Horse" top the list? It’s a Steven Spielberg-directed World War I period piece based on a Tony Award winning play about a boy’s relationship with his horse. Need I say more?

Silver
"Midnight in Paris" 3:1
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" 3:1
"The Tree of Life" 6:1
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" 7:1
"Hugo" 9:1


Meanwhile, Woody Allen’s "Midnight in Paris" and Terence Malick’s "The Tree of Life" have lost some momentum as more increasingly viable options have sprouted into place, but they still remain possibilities especially if the Academy decides to nominate more than five films. Stephen Daldry’s "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" has received good word of mouth in test screenings (especially for Max Von Sydow’s performance), and being a 9/11 film based on a popular book by Jonathan Safran Foer and starring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock certainly doesn’t hurt its chances.


Martin Scorsese’s "Hugo" screened as a sneak preview at the New York Film Festival and received fairly positive reviews, and like "The Artist" it’s another salute to cinema history that Academy voters will enjoy. However, it may have more success in the technical categories. Tomas Alfredson’s "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spyburned up the box office in the UK and has been building Oscar buzz as well, especially for Gary Oldman’s performance.

Bronze
"My Week with Marilyn" 10:1
"J. Edgar" 12:1
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" 12:1
"The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn" 15:1
"Shame" 20:1


Bringing up the rear are a few well-meaning biopics, adaptations of popular literary properties and one film that might just be too controversial for Oscar. "J. Edgar" and "My Week with Marilyn" were both heavily anticipated, but after lukewarm to middling reviews, their chances are more likely lie with their lead actors receiving nods. David Fincher’s "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" has yet to screen, but as Fincher was nominated for "The Social Network" last year, it would be foolish to write off the film too soon. Although Fincher has his own ideas for why the film might not appeal to Oscar voters.


There’s also "Tintin," Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the popular comic book series set to be released this year. Reviews have been mixed so far, but hey, it’s Spielberg and there are no other animated films in the running. Last but not least, Steve McQueen’s "Shame" has received rave reviews for Michael Fassbender’s performance, but its subject matter about a struggling sex addict as well as its NC-17 rating will make its Best Picture fight an uphill battle. The last film to receive a Best Picture nomination with the equivalent of the NC-17 rating was "Midnight Cowboy" in 1969, but that film is tame compared to Shame, which features the full frontal Fassbender.

We’re sure to see some movement in the coming weeks as critics groups begin to announce their awards (there’s still hope, Potter fans!). Will "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" outrun the competition? Will "War Horse" be a colossal disappointment? Will "Margin Call" capitalize on the current economic crisis to come out of nowhere and steal a spot? Is there any stopping "The Help?" Only time will tell, Oscar fans.

Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 50 days to go.

Previous odds
In order, best to worst odds:
"The Help" – Best Picture odds: 2:3
"Midnight in Paris" — Best Picture odds: 2:3
"The Tree of Life" — Best Picture odds: 3:2
"Moneyball" – Best Picture odds: 8:1
"Drive" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Warrior" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Beginners" – Best Picture odds: 12:1
"Jane Eyre" – Best Picture odds: 13:1
"Cars 2" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Contagion" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Meek’s Cutoff" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"The Debt" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Super 8" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Bridesmaids" – Best Picture odds: 30:1
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" – Best Picture odds: 1,000:1

(Read all the Oscar Odds posts here.)

COMMENTS

BLOGGER: 3
  1. I think it's down to the first 9 films that you mentioned. How many nominees do you think there will end up being?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ryan, statistically, I think nine is going to be very hard to achieve. But I'll let Devin answer that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'm leaning toward 6 or 7. The Academy revealed that from 2001-2008 between five and nine films all would have been nominated but not 10. It's tough to make a call with any degree of certainty, but 6 or 7 seem reasonable to me.

    ReplyDelete

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Owens,2,radio,7,Randy Haberkamp,3,ratings,2,Ratner,1,Ray Dolby Ballroom,2,Ray Romano,1,reactions,4,recap,8,Red 2,1,red carpet,61,red dawn,1,Reginald Hudlin,2,Regis Philbin,1,reminder list,13,reporters,3,resident evil,1,results,6,Rethink.,1,review,176,Richard Ayoade,1,Richard Linklater,1,Richard Wagner,1,ricky gervais,2,ridley scott,2,rio 2,1,rise of guardians,1,rise of the planet of the apes,1,road to nominations,18,roadtrip,1,rob epstein,1,Rob Marshall,1,Robert Downey Jr,2,Robert Lopez,3,Robert Morton,1,Robert Osborne,1,Robert Stromberg,1,Robert Zemeckis,1,robertson,2,Robin Roberts,4,robin swicord,1,robin williams,1,robocop,1,robots,1,Rockwell Group,1,Roger Ebert,2,romcom,1,ron howard,1,rosamund pike,1,rosen,1,roskam,1,round table,1,Royce Hall,1,RSS,1,rules,9,rumor,1,rush,1,Russell Crowe,4,ryan gosling,1,ryan seacrest,2,sag awards,15,sailcloth,1,Sally Field,2,samsara,1,samuel goldwyn theater,13,Samuel L. Jackson,2,Sandra Bullock,3,Santa Monica Civic Auditorium,1,Sarah,1,saturday night live,1,Savannah Guthrie,1,saving mr. banks,4,Scarlett Johannson,2,scary movie,1,schedule,4,sci-fi,6,scitech,5,score,2,screen actors guild,14,screeners,1,secret,1,secret life of walter mitty,2,Seligman,1,semi-finalists,2,Sequoia Productions,1,set,3,set design,12,seth macfarlane,5,seth meyers,1,Seth Rogen,1,setup,3,shame,1,shawshank trail,2,shooting,2,shortlist,93,shorts,27,Sid Ganis,5,side effects,1,Sidney Poitier,1,silver linings,2,silver linings playbook,1,sin city,1,skyfall,3,skype,2,sleeping beauty,1,slider,8,Slumdog Millionaire,4,SNL,6,sofia coppola,1,somewhere,1,Son of Saul,1,sony pictures,1,Sound of Music,1,soundtrack,2,space,3,space opera,1,sparkle,1,special event,3,special guests,2,spencer,1,spider-man,1,Spielberg,3,Spike Lee,1,spotify,2,spreecast,3,Stanley Weber,1,star,1,star at the movies,99,Star Trek,2,star wars,2,statistics,4,statuette,11,step up revolution,1,stephen king,1,Stephenie Meyer,1,steve bass,1,Steve Carell,1,steve jobs,1,Steve Martin,3,Steven Soderbergh,1,Stevens,3,store,1,streaming,1,student academy awards,6,students,3,submissions,6,submitted,4,Sugar Man,1,summer,43,summer movies,51,super 8,1,superman,1,sweepstakes,1,Sylvester Stallone,1,symposiums,4,Taken 2,1,tally,6,tammy,1,tbt,2,TCM,1,team oscar,4,technology,2,ted,1,teenage mutant ninja turtles,2,telecast,89,television,7,television academy,1,telluride,2,thank you,1,That Awkward Moment,1,thats my boy,1,the artist,1,the avengers,3,the best man holiday,1,the butler,2,the buzz,5,the campaign,1,The Class,1,The counselor,1,the croods,3,the dark world,1,the Descendants,1,the drop,1,the fighter,1,the force awakens,1,the giver,1,the gold knight,5,the heat,1,the hobbit,8,The Host,1,the illusionist,1,the impossible,1,the king's speech,3,The LEGO movie,3,The Lone Ranger,3,the maze runner,1,The Moon Song,1,The Oscars,26,The Other Woman,1,The Public Transportation Snob,1,The Purge,1,The Reader,2,The Rock,1,the shawshank redemption,2,the smurfs,1,the social network,2,the view,1,the watch,1,The Winter Soldier,3,The Wrap,1,theatre,6,theme,4,this is the end,1,thor,3,thriller,6,throwback thursday,3,thrust stage,1,tiger boy,1,Tim Burton,1,Tim Gunn,1,timelapse,2,timeline,7,tina fey,9,Tina Gordon Chism,1,titanic,1,today show,1,toledo,81,toledo free press,110,tom brokaw,1,tom cruise,4,tom hanks,2,tom hardy,2,Tom Hooper,1,Tom Oyer,2,Tom Sherak,8,Tommy Lee Jones,3,tony awards,7,Top 10,15,top 3,3,toronto,3,total recall,2,tournament,1,trailer,1,train plane and automobile,1,Transcendence,1,transformation,2,transformers,2,transparency,1,travel,1,tree of life,1,trent reznor,1,tribute,1,tron,1,tron: legacy,1,trouble with the curve,2,true grit,1,turbo,1,tusk,1,tuxedo,1,tv,5,tv guide,1,twilight,1,Twitter,6,Ty Simpkins,1,Tyler Perry,2,tyson beckford,1,U2,2,UCLA,1,unexpected journey,1,united airlines,1,universal,1,university of michigan,2,USA Today,1,uzo aduba,2,vacation,2,venice,2,video,152,video on demand,3,Vince Vaughn,1,viola davis,1,Virginia Madsen,1,visual effects,14,VOD,1,voting,18,vulture,1,WALL-E,1,Wally Pfister,1,walmart,1,walt disney world,3,Walter,1,Wanda Sykes,1,Warm Bodies,1,warner bros.,2,Way Way Back,1,waynes world,1,website,5,wes anderson,1,what we know,4,white house,2,whitney houston,1,who wants to be a millionaire,1,whoopi goldberg,2,will ferrell,1,will smith,1,William H. Macy,1,william ross,1,winners,25,Wizard of Oz,2,wnwo,54,wnwo today,54,wolf of wall street,2,wolfgang puck,1,Wolverine,1,wonder woman,1,wonder women,1,wont back down,1,world,6,world war z,2,worlds end,1,wreck-it ralph,2,wspd,1,wtol,45,x-men,2,year in review,3,youre next,1,YouTube,97,Zac Efron,2,zach galifianakis,1,Zaineb Abdul-Nabi,1,Zap2It,1,zarafa,1,Zero Dark Thirty,1,zoe saldana,1,zombies,1,zug,2,
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight: Oscar Odds: 100 days to go… what movies are in?
Oscar Odds: 100 days to go… what movies are in?
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The Gold Knight - Latest Academy Awards news and insight
http://www.thegoldknight.com/2011/11/oscar-odds-100-days-to-go-what-movies.html
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