By Devin Fuller TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook We only have 100 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, so it’s about time we ...
By Devin Fuller
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
We only have 100 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, so it’s about time we started getting serious. It has been 50 days since we last evaluated the state of the race. In this edition of Oscar Odds, The Gold Knight looks at the 15 films most likely to have their names called on January 24 as a Best Picture nominee.
Many of these films haven’t made their way into theaters yet, but we can safely consider them as possibilities based on their buzz, festival performance, pedigree and studio marketing muscle. These odds aren’t about who deserves to win the Oscar, but rather what films will be most appealing to Oscar voters. Anywhere from five to 10 films will be nominated, and they’ll likely be picked out of the list of names here.
Which kind of proverbial dice will each film be rolling come Oscar time? Find out below…
Gold
"War Horse" 1:5
"The Help" 2:3
"The Artist" 2:3
"The Descendants" 3:2
"Moneyball" 2:1
Since we last left our contenders, "The Help" and "Moneyball" have only gained more traction (if Oprah’s speech at the Governors Ball hasn’t guaranteed "The Help" a spot in the running, I don’t know what will). It would be a surprise to see either film missing on Jan. 24. "The Artist" and "The Descendants" have both been big hits at festivals and their respective companies are putting in a lot of marketing muscle. "The Artist," which would be the first silent picture nominated for Best Picture since 1928, will definitely play well to older Oscar voters with its nostalgic look back at Hollywood’s transition to talkies. Also, Harvey Weinstein has not been shy about sticking stars Jean Dujardin and Bérénice Bejo out there as much as possible.
As for "The Descendants," it is the latest film from director Alexander Payne, who won an Oscar for his screenplay for "Sideways" back in 2004. Payne is due back for a visit (especially with Academy favorite George Clooney in tow). But why does "War Horse" top the list? It’s a Steven Spielberg-directed World War I period piece based on a Tony Award winning play about a boy’s relationship with his horse. Need I say more?
Silver
"Midnight in Paris" 3:1
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" 3:1
"The Tree of Life" 6:1
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" 7:1
"Hugo" 9:1
Meanwhile, Woody Allen’s "Midnight in Paris" and Terence Malick’s "The Tree of Life" have lost some momentum as more increasingly viable options have sprouted into place, but they still remain possibilities especially if the Academy decides to nominate more than five films. Stephen Daldry’s "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" has received good word of mouth in test screenings (especially for Max Von Sydow’s performance), and being a 9/11 film based on a popular book by Jonathan Safran Foer and starring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock certainly doesn’t hurt its chances.
Martin Scorsese’s "Hugo" screened as a sneak preview at the New York Film Festival and received fairly positive reviews, and like "The Artist" it’s another salute to cinema history that Academy voters will enjoy. However, it may have more success in the technical categories. Tomas Alfredson’s "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" burned up the box office in the UK and has been building Oscar buzz as well, especially for Gary Oldman’s performance.
Bronze
"My Week with Marilyn" 10:1
"J. Edgar" 12:1
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" 12:1
"The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn" 15:1
"Shame" 20:1
Bringing up the rear are a few well-meaning biopics, adaptations of popular literary properties and one film that might just be too controversial for Oscar. "J. Edgar" and "My Week with Marilyn" were both heavily anticipated, but after lukewarm to middling reviews, their chances are more likely lie with their lead actors receiving nods. David Fincher’s "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" has yet to screen, but as Fincher was nominated for "The Social Network" last year, it would be foolish to write off the film too soon. Although Fincher has his own ideas for why the film might not appeal to Oscar voters.
There’s also "Tintin," Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the popular comic book series set to be released this year. Reviews have been mixed so far, but hey, it’s Spielberg and there are no other animated films in the running. Last but not least, Steve McQueen’s "Shame" has received rave reviews for Michael Fassbender’s performance, but its subject matter about a struggling sex addict as well as its NC-17 rating will make its Best Picture fight an uphill battle. The last film to receive a Best Picture nomination with the equivalent of the NC-17 rating was "Midnight Cowboy" in 1969, but that film is tame compared to Shame, which features the full frontal Fassbender.
We’re sure to see some movement in the coming weeks as critics groups begin to announce their awards (there’s still hope, Potter fans!). Will "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" outrun the competition? Will "War Horse" be a colossal disappointment? Will "Margin Call" capitalize on the current economic crisis to come out of nowhere and steal a spot? Is there any stopping "The Help?" Only time will tell, Oscar fans.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 50 days to go.
Previous odds
In order, best to worst odds:
"The Help" – Best Picture odds: 2:3
"Midnight in Paris" — Best Picture odds: 2:3
"The Tree of Life" — Best Picture odds: 3:2
"Moneyball" – Best Picture odds: 8:1
"Drive" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Warrior" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Beginners" – Best Picture odds: 12:1
"Jane Eyre" – Best Picture odds: 13:1
"Cars 2" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Contagion" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Meek’s Cutoff" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"The Debt" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Super 8" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Bridesmaids" – Best Picture odds: 30:1
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" – Best Picture odds: 1,000:1
(Read all the Oscar Odds posts here.)
TGK Correspondent, Twitter / Facebook
We only have 100 days to go until the 84th Academy Awards, so it’s about time we started getting serious. It has been 50 days since we last evaluated the state of the race. In this edition of Oscar Odds, The Gold Knight looks at the 15 films most likely to have their names called on January 24 as a Best Picture nominee.
Many of these films haven’t made their way into theaters yet, but we can safely consider them as possibilities based on their buzz, festival performance, pedigree and studio marketing muscle. These odds aren’t about who deserves to win the Oscar, but rather what films will be most appealing to Oscar voters. Anywhere from five to 10 films will be nominated, and they’ll likely be picked out of the list of names here.
Which kind of proverbial dice will each film be rolling come Oscar time? Find out below…
Gold"War Horse" 1:5
"The Help" 2:3
"The Artist" 2:3
"The Descendants" 3:2
"Moneyball" 2:1
Since we last left our contenders, "The Help" and "Moneyball" have only gained more traction (if Oprah’s speech at the Governors Ball hasn’t guaranteed "The Help" a spot in the running, I don’t know what will). It would be a surprise to see either film missing on Jan. 24. "The Artist" and "The Descendants" have both been big hits at festivals and their respective companies are putting in a lot of marketing muscle. "The Artist," which would be the first silent picture nominated for Best Picture since 1928, will definitely play well to older Oscar voters with its nostalgic look back at Hollywood’s transition to talkies. Also, Harvey Weinstein has not been shy about sticking stars Jean Dujardin and Bérénice Bejo out there as much as possible.
As for "The Descendants," it is the latest film from director Alexander Payne, who won an Oscar for his screenplay for "Sideways" back in 2004. Payne is due back for a visit (especially with Academy favorite George Clooney in tow). But why does "War Horse" top the list? It’s a Steven Spielberg-directed World War I period piece based on a Tony Award winning play about a boy’s relationship with his horse. Need I say more?
Silver"Midnight in Paris" 3:1
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" 3:1
"The Tree of Life" 6:1
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" 7:1
"Hugo" 9:1
Meanwhile, Woody Allen’s "Midnight in Paris" and Terence Malick’s "The Tree of Life" have lost some momentum as more increasingly viable options have sprouted into place, but they still remain possibilities especially if the Academy decides to nominate more than five films. Stephen Daldry’s "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" has received good word of mouth in test screenings (especially for Max Von Sydow’s performance), and being a 9/11 film based on a popular book by Jonathan Safran Foer and starring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock certainly doesn’t hurt its chances.
Martin Scorsese’s "Hugo" screened as a sneak preview at the New York Film Festival and received fairly positive reviews, and like "The Artist" it’s another salute to cinema history that Academy voters will enjoy. However, it may have more success in the technical categories. Tomas Alfredson’s "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" burned up the box office in the UK and has been building Oscar buzz as well, especially for Gary Oldman’s performance.
"My Week with Marilyn" 10:1
"J. Edgar" 12:1
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" 12:1
"The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn" 15:1
"Shame" 20:1
Bringing up the rear are a few well-meaning biopics, adaptations of popular literary properties and one film that might just be too controversial for Oscar. "J. Edgar" and "My Week with Marilyn" were both heavily anticipated, but after lukewarm to middling reviews, their chances are more likely lie with their lead actors receiving nods. David Fincher’s "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" has yet to screen, but as Fincher was nominated for "The Social Network" last year, it would be foolish to write off the film too soon. Although Fincher has his own ideas for why the film might not appeal to Oscar voters.
There’s also "Tintin," Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the popular comic book series set to be released this year. Reviews have been mixed so far, but hey, it’s Spielberg and there are no other animated films in the running. Last but not least, Steve McQueen’s "Shame" has received rave reviews for Michael Fassbender’s performance, but its subject matter about a struggling sex addict as well as its NC-17 rating will make its Best Picture fight an uphill battle. The last film to receive a Best Picture nomination with the equivalent of the NC-17 rating was "Midnight Cowboy" in 1969, but that film is tame compared to Shame, which features the full frontal Fassbender.
We’re sure to see some movement in the coming weeks as critics groups begin to announce their awards (there’s still hope, Potter fans!). Will "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" outrun the competition? Will "War Horse" be a colossal disappointment? Will "Margin Call" capitalize on the current economic crisis to come out of nowhere and steal a spot? Is there any stopping "The Help?" Only time will tell, Oscar fans.
Talk Oscar Odds with Devin on Twitter and Facebook. What movies do you think have the best odds at next year's Oscars? Let us know by commenting here, on Twitter or Facebook. We'll recap more odds with 50 days to go.
Previous odds
In order, best to worst odds:
"The Help" – Best Picture odds: 2:3
"Midnight in Paris" — Best Picture odds: 2:3
"The Tree of Life" — Best Picture odds: 3:2
"Moneyball" – Best Picture odds: 8:1
"Drive" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Warrior" – Best Picture odds: 10:1
"Beginners" – Best Picture odds: 12:1
"Jane Eyre" – Best Picture odds: 13:1
"Cars 2" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Contagion" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"Meek’s Cutoff" – Best Picture odds: 15:1
"The Debt" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Super 8" – Best Picture odds: 20:1
"Bridesmaids" – Best Picture odds: 30:1
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" – Best Picture odds: 1,000:1
(Read all the Oscar Odds posts here.)
I think it's down to the first 9 films that you mentioned. How many nominees do you think there will end up being?
ReplyDeleteRyan, statistically, I think nine is going to be very hard to achieve. But I'll let Devin answer that.
ReplyDeleteI'm leaning toward 6 or 7. The Academy revealed that from 2001-2008 between five and nine films all would have been nominated but not 10. It's tough to make a call with any degree of certainty, but 6 or 7 seem reasonable to me.
ReplyDelete