Editor James A. Molnar makes his final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
With a recording-breaking 16 nominations, "Sinners" could break the record for the most Oscars won in a single night, which is 11. Just how many awards will the horror film take home?
I'm predicting the groundbreaking hit will take home four statuettes, including one for its star twins Michael B. Jordan. The leading actor has surged past Timothée Chalamet for the most buzz and momentum, which started with the Actor Award win (and during Oscar final voting) and as Chalamet's ballet-opera comments were causing a complete derailment.
Recently, "Anora" and "Oppenheimer" joined an exclusive club. Winner of five and seven awards, respectively, they became one of only sixth and fifth Best Picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes (thank to Variety for the that stat). I'm predicting "One Battle after Another" to join that club, which each film taking home at six statuettes.
For Best Picture, it’s important to remember that the Preferential Ballot (Ranked Choice Voting) is in play. Watch this animated video from The Academy to learn more about this voting system for the top category.
All but one of the acting categories have been flux throughout the season, with Jessie Buckley seeming to be a full lock for "Hamnet," and its only win of the night.
Michael B. Jordan in "Sinners" seems to be a lock now for Best Actor, with Timothée Chalamet as the spoil for "Marty Supreme." Supporting Actor seems to be heading toward Sean Penn for "One Battle after Another," with Stellan Skarsgård for "Sentimental Value" or Delroy Lindo for "Sinners" being the possible spoils. If Lindo takes the win early in the night, it could spell a possible "Sinners" surge and a Best Picture win.
For Supporting Actress, it might just be a coin toss. Amy Madigan for "Weapons" has the momentum, but Teyana Taylor for "One Battle after Another" or Wunmi Mosaku for "Sinners" could be the spoilers. The ceremony typically puts this category at the very beginning so we won't have to wait long for an answer.
Another thing to watch for early is if "Frankenstein" wins its below-the-line categories we're predicting. If "Sinners" takes some of those categories, we know the rest of the show will get really interesting.
If you’re looking for sure things (or as close as we can get on Oscar Night):
- Best Actress: Jessie Buckley in "Hamnet"
- Best Animated Feature: "KPop Demon Hunters"
- Best Casting: Francine Maisler for "Sinners"
- Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle after Another"
- Best Music – Original Score: Ludwig Göransson for "Sinners"
- Best Music – Original Song: "Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters"
- Best Visual Effects: "Avatar: Fire and Ash"
- Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another"
- Best Writing – Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler for "Sinners"
For some of the shorts, let the guessing be ever on your side!
We’ll all find out what happens Sunday night. In the meantime, we’re here to help you win your Oscar pool or ballot contest.
Here are my final predictions (and the possible spoilers):
Past Predictions Record:
97th in 2025: 18 out of 23 (78%)
96th in 2024: 18 out of 23 (78%)
95th in 2023: 18 out of 23 (78%)
94th in 2022: 19 out of 23 (83%)
93rd in 2021: 18 out of 23 (78%)
92nd in 2020: 21 out of 24 (88%)
91st in 2019: 18 out of 24 (75%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
90th in 2018: 18 out of 24 (75%)
89th in 2017: 14 out of 24 (58%)
88th in 2016: 19 out of 24 (79%)
87th in 2015: 19 out of 24 (79%)
86th in 2014: 21 out of 24 (88%)
85th in 2013: 16 out of 24 (67%)
Final Tally Predictions
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.): 4 out of 16
"One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.): 6 out of 13
"Frankenstein" (Netflix): 3 out of 9
"Marty Supreme" (A24): 0 out of 9
"Sentimental Value" (Neon): 1 out of 9
"Hamnet" (Focus Features): 1 out of 8
"Bugonia" (Focus Features): 0 out of 4
"F1" (Apple): 1 out of 4
"The Secret Agent" (Neon): 0 out of 4
"Train Dreams" (Netflix): 0 out of 4
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" (Walt Disney): 1 out of 2
"Blue Moon" (Sony Pictures Classics): 0 out of 2
"It Was Just an Accident" (Neon): 0 out of 2
"KPop Demon Hunters" (Netflix): 2 out of 2
"Sirāt" (Neon): 0 out of 2
Best Picture Release Dates:
"Sinners" - April 17
"F1" - June 26
"One Battle after Another" - September 25
"Frankenstein" - October 17
"Bugonia" - October 23
"Sentimental Value" - November 7
"Train Dreams" - November 7
"Hamnet" - November 26
"The Secret Agent" - November 26
"Marty Supreme" - December 18
Best Picture
"Bugonia" (Focus Features)
Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
"F1" (Apple)
Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
"Frankenstein" (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
"Hamnet" (Focus Features)
Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
"Marty Supreme" (A24)
Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
**PREDICTION** "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
"The Secret Agent" (Neon)
Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
"Sentimental Value" (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
"Train Dreams" (Netflix)
Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers
Spoiler: "Sinners"
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet in "Marty Supreme" (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio in "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke in "Blue Moon" (Sony Pictures Classics)
**PREDICTION** Michael B. Jordan in "Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura in "The Secret Agent" (Neon)
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro in "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi in "Frankenstein" (Netflix)
Delroy Lindo in "Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
**PREDICTION** Sean Penn in "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård in "Sentimental Value" (Neon)
Spoiler: Stellan Skarsgård or Delroy Lindo
Best Actress
**PREDICTION** Jessie Buckley in "Hamnet" (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne in "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You" (A24)
Kate Hudson in "Song Sung Blue" (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve in "Sentimental Value" (Neon)
Emma Stone in "Bugonia" (Focus Features)
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning in "Sentimental Value" (Neon)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in "Sentimental Value" (Neon)
**PREDICTION** Amy Madigan in "Weapons" (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku in "Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor in "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Spoiler: Teyana Taylor or Wunmi Mosaku
Best Animated Feature Film
"Arco" (Neon)
"Elio" (Walt Disney)
**PREDICTION** "KPop Demon Hunters" (Netflix)
"Little Amélie or the Character of Rain" (GKIDS)
"Zootopia 2" (Walt Disney)
Best Casting
"Hamnet" (Focus Features) Nina Gold
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Jennifer Venditti
"One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Cassandra Kulukundis
"The Secret Agent" (Neon) Gabriel Domingues
**PREDICTION** "Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Francine Maisler
Best Cinematography
"Frankenstein" (Netflix) Dan Laustsen
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Darius Khondji
**PREDICTION** "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Michael Bauman
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Autumn Durald Arkapaw
"Train Dreams" (Netflix) Adolpho Veloso
Spoiler: "Sinners"
Best Costume Design
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" (Walt Disney) Deborah L. Scott
**PREDICTION** "Frankenstein" (Netflix) Kate Hawley
"Hamnet" (Focus Features) Malgosia Turzanska
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Miyako Bellizzi
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Ruth E. Carter
Spoiler: "Sinners"
Best Directing
"Hamnet" (Focus Features) Chloé Zhao
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Josh Safdie
**PREDICTION** "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Paul Thomas Anderson
"Sentimental Value" (Neon) Joachim Trier
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Ryan Coogler
Best Documentary Feature Film
"The Alabama Solution" (HBO Documentary Films) Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
"Come See Me in the Good Light" (Apple) Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
"Cutting through Rocks" Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
"Mr. Nobody against Putin" (PINK) David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková
**PREDICTION** "The Perfect Neighbor" (Netflix) Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Spoiler: "Mr. Nobody against Putin"
Best Documentary Short Film
**PREDICTION** "All the Empty Rooms" (Netflix) Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
"Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud" (HBO) Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
"Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"" (Sky) Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
"The Devil Is Busy" (HBO) Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
"Perfectly a Strangeness" (Second Sight Pictures) Alison McAlpine
Spoiler: "Armed Only with a Camera"
Best Film Editing
"F1" (Apple) Stephen Mirrione
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
**PREDICTION** "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Andy Jurgensen
"Sentimental Value" (Neon) Olivier Bugge Coutté
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Michael P. Shawver
Best International Feature Film
"The Secret Agent" (Brazil)
"It Was Just an Accident" (France)
**PREDICTION** "Sentimental Value" (Norway)
"Sirāt" (Spain)
"The Voice of Hind Rajab" (Tunisia)
Spoiler: "The Secret Agent"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
**PREDICTION** "Frankenstein" (Netflix) Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
"Kokuho" (GKIDS) Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
"The Smashing Machine" (A24) Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
"The Ugly Stepsister" (Independent Film Company/Shudder) Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Best Music – Original Score
"Bugonia" (Focus Features) Jerskin Fendrix
"Frankenstein" (Netflix) Alexandre Desplat
"Hamnet" (Focus Features) Max Richter
"One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Jonny Greenwood
**PREDICTION** "Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Ludwig Göransson
Best Music – Original song
"Dear Me" from "Diane Warren: Relentless" (MasterClass/Greenwich Entertainment)
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
**PREDICTION** "Golden" from "KPop Demon Hunters" (Netflix)
Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
"I Lied To You" from "Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
"Sweet Dreams Of Joy" from "Viva Verdi!" (Viva Verdi!)
Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
"Train Dreams" from "Train Dreams" (Netflix)
Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
Spoiler: "I Lied To You"
Best Production Design
**PREDICTION** "Frankenstein" (Netflix)
Production Design: Tamara Deverell
Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
"Hamnet" (Focus Features)
Production Design: Fiona Crombie
Set Decoration: Alice Felton
"Marty Supreme" (A24)
Production Design: Jack Fisk
Set Decoration: Adam Willis
"One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Florencia Martin
Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.)
Production Design: Hannah Beachler
Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Spoiler: "Sinners"
Best Short Film – Animated
**PREDICTION** "Butterfly" (Sacrebleu Productions)
"Forevergreen"
"The Girl Who Cried Pearls" (National Film Board of Canada)
"Retirement Plan"
"The Three Sisters" (Polydont Films/Rymanco Ventures)
Spoiler: "The Girl Who Cried Pearls"
Best Short Film – Live Action
"Butcher's Stain" (Tel Aviv University Steve Tisch School of Film and Television) Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
**PREDICTION** "A Friend of Dorothy" Lee Knight and James Dean
"Jane Austen's Period Drama" Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
"The Singers" (Netflix) Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
"Two People Exchanging Saliva" (Canal+/The New Yorker) Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
Spoiler: "Two People Exchanging Saliva"
Best Sound
**PREDICTION** "F1" (Apple) Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
"Frankenstein" (Netflix) Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
"One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
"Sirāt" (Neon) Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Spoiler: "Sinners" or "Sirāt"
Best Visual Effects
**PREDICTION** "Avatar: Fire and Ash" (Walt Disney) Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
"F1" (Apple) Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
"Jurassic World Rebirth" (Universal) David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
"The Lost Bus" (Apple) Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
"Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Best Writing – Adapted screenplay
"Bugonia" (Focus Features) Screenplay by Will Tracy
"Frankenstein" (Netflix) Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
"Hamnet" (Focus Features) Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell
**PREDICTION** "One Battle after Another" (Warner Bros.) Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
"Train Dreams" (Netflix) Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Best Writing – Original screenplay
"Blue Moon" (Sony Pictures Classics) Written by Robert Kaplow
"It Was Just an Accident" (Neon) Written by Jafar Panahi
Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
"Marty Supreme" (A24) Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
"Sentimental Value" (Neon) Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
**PREDICTION** "Sinners" (Warner Bros.) Written by Ryan Coogler
Watch the Oscars promo video here:
The 98th Academy Awards, for outstanding film achievements of 2025, will be presented on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood, and will be televised live on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide. The ceremony will also be streamed live on Hulu.
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